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Kittle has also played in two games without 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk this season, and he went over this number in both of those games. Aiyuk, as a reminder, is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
From Week 3 and on, the Packers have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards specifically to tight ends, and the sixth-most receptions as well. They are not the worst matchup in the world for TE props, but not a defense you would be scared of either.
This is a number that Kittle cleared in last year’s playoff matchup with 81 receiving yards, and overall, he has cleared 45.5 receiving yards in each of the last three matchups against the Packers.
He should be set up for success on Sunday.
George Kittle over 45.5 receiving yards (-110): bet365
Jauan Jennings o52.5 Rec. Yards (-110) bet365
Eventually, Jauan Jennings is going to slow down as a receiver (probably), but we are going to keep riding the heater as long as we can.
Jennings has played in three games this season in which one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel were missing, and in those three games he has: 175 (and 3 TDs), 93 and 91 receiving yards.
More importantly, his advanced numbers in those three games have just been off the charts. For starters, he has played 85, 91 and 95 percent of snaps in those three games, and he averages just above a 50 percent snap rate when both Aiyuk and Samuel are on the field.
If we focus on the three games in which one of Aiyuk/Samuel were out, Jennings has the following numbers, with where they would rank over the course of the entire season in parentheses:
- Snap rate: 89.5 percent (sixth-highest)
- Target rate: 35.1 percent (highest in the NFL)
- Targets per route run: 0.32 (fourth-highest)
- Yards per route run: 3.52 (second-highest)
- Yards per target: 10.88 (eighth-highest)
He has elite numbers across the board, and he is still being priced based on his season averages, which change dramatically based on whether Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are on the field.
So, we will gladly take advantage of another receiving prop for the 49ers that is priced too low.
Jauan Jennings over 52.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit
Jordan Love 250+ Pass. Yards (-110) bet365
For our third and final pick of the game, let’s head to the other side of the field and back the Packers’ QB to throw for some yards.
It admittedly feels like russian roulette when trying to decide between which of the five receiving options for the Packers is going to have a good game, but the good news is that either way, those yards would have to come from the quarterback.
Despite this feeling like a somewhat lost season for Love, he has still gone over this number in five of seven games (taking out one game in which he left early due to injury).
It has felt like a season marred by injury and inconsistency, but the Packers still sit at 7-3, and a lot of Love’s counting stats do not look bad.
Generally, taking QB passing props is not something you would want to play against the 49ers, but their defense looks entirely different with DE Nick Bosa off the field, and he is expected to miss this game due to injury.
The 49ers held the Seahawks in check for most of their game last week, until Bosa went down and the game completely flipped.
The Seahawks had six points on two field goals when they got the ball with six minutes left in the third quarter. Bosa went down during that drive, and the Seahawks scored touchdowns on two of their last three drives.
The one drive they did not score a TD, they still drove deep into the 49ers territory, but just ended up getting stuffed on fourth down.
So, this is a game in which we expect Love to have success, hopefully getting to 250 passing yards to cash this over.
Jordan Love 250+ passing yards (-110): 1 Unit
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