Harley-Davidson is expected to release its earnings report in the coming weeks. The renowned motorcycle manufacturer has faced challenges in recent quarters, primarily due to elevated interest rates that have dampened consumer sentiment. These conditions are likely to persist through Q1, as motorcycle sales in the U.S. remain soft. According to MotorCycles Data, U.S. motorbike sales in February dropped by 20.7% year-over-year. The challenging consumer environment has been exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s implementation of various tariffs targeting over 100 countries. Analysts estimate revenue at approximately $1.11 billion, with earnings projected at $0.78 per share, down from $1.72 in the same quarter last year.
Harley’s stock has fallen more than 25% since the beginning of the year. The company currently holds a market capitalization of $2.7 billion, with trailing twelve-month revenue of $5.2 billion. Operationally, Harley was profitable, posting $417 million in operating profits and $455 million in net income. For investors seeking less volatile exposure than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio may be an attractive option, having outperformed the S&P 500 with total returns exceeding 91% since inception.
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Harley-Davidson’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings stock movement:
- Across 18 earnings reports over the past five years, 12 showed gains and 6 showed losses in 1D returns, indicating a 67% chance of positive movement.
- Limiting the data to the last three years reduces this probability to 55%.
- The median return for the 12 positive days was 8.7%, while the 6 negative days saw a median decline of -6.8%.
Additional statistics on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are presented in the following table.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A lower-risk strategy—though only useful if correlation is strong—is to analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings. By identifying the most correlated timeframes, traders can act accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns exhibit the highest correlation, a trader might go “long” for the next five days following a positive 1D return. Below is the correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year return histories. The term 1D_5D indicates the correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Peer earnings reports can sometimes influence Harley-Davidson’s post-earnings reaction. The stock may start pricing in expectations even before its own announcement. Here’s a look at how Harley-Davidson’s post-earnings 1D returns compare with the same for peers reporting shortly before it.
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