Illinois vs. Indiana Betting Odds, Best Bets: Can Illini Pull Off Upset?

After both No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana drastically exceeded expectations in 2024, they meet on Saturday night in a massive measuring stick game for both squads.

It’s worth noting that while both are ranked in the top 20 after three weeks, oddsmakers are from sold on either of these teams.

At FanDuel, neither team’s odds to win the Big Ten are shorter than 30-to-1 as of September 19. Both the Fighting Illini and Hoosiers are also heavy longshots to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.

How To Watch Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Indiana Hoosiers

• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EDT
• TV: NBC/Peacock

Illinois vs. Indiana Odds: Spread, ML, Total

Illinois vs. Indiana Betting News, Analysis

It’s hard to deny the upside in either Champaign, Illinois, and Bloomington, Indiana. The two biggest reasons (besides Bret Bielema and Curt Cignetti) why are quarterbacks Luke Altmyer for the Fighting Illini and Fernando Mendoza for the Hoosiers.

After starting his career at Ole Miss, Altmyer — now a fifth-year senior — broke out in 2024, throwing 22 touchdowns and just picks for a squad that won 10 games and finished the season ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25.

Mendoza might be the biggest draft prospect that casual college football fans don’t know much about. The 6-foot-5 junior is expected to be a first-round draft pick after flashing a big arm for a 6-7 Cal team in 2024.

Illinois Fighting Illini Betting News, Outlook

• Record: 3-0
• Big Ten winner odds (FD): +3500
• Odds to make CFP (FD): +680

Indiana’s shocking CFP run was the biggest surprise story in the Big Ten last fall. Illinois is coming off of a head-turning season of its own, though, jumping from 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) in ’23 to 10-3 (6-3 Big Ten) in ’24.

Clutch, largely mistake-free play by Altmyer and a stingy defense were key for Illinois last year, which was outstanding in close games.

This team returns a ton of experience — more than any other team in the Big Ten — but it did lose its top skill position players. Powerful RB Josh McCray headed to Georgia via the transfer portal, while receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin are now playing on Sundays.

The Illinois defense anchored by pass rusher Gabe Zacas and a veteran secondary has played well so far this year, though it did give up 400-plus yards to Duke. Illinois was good enough in the red zone to beat the Blue Devils anyway, as it only gave up 19 points in that matchup, including just six after halftime.

Indiana Hoosiers Betting News, Outlook

• Record: 3-0
• Big Ten winner odds (FD): +3300
• Odds to make CFP (FD): +490

While Illinois is unproven outside of a Week 2 trip to Duke, the Hoosiers are even tougher to get a read on after facing Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.

The Hoosiers lost last year’s prolific quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, but replaced him with a tantalizing pro prospect, former Cal QB Fernando Mendoza, via the transfer portal.

Mendoza has gotten better every week for IU. He rebounded from an underwhelming Hoosiers debut vs. Old Dominion with big games vs. Kennesaw State and Indiana State the last two weeks.

Mendoza showed a year ago that he can play well against tough competition. Just three weeks after leading a big early-season upset of Auburn, Mendoza and Cal nearly shocked Miami as 8.5-point ‘dogs, losing 39-38 in a game they led 35-10 in the third quarter.

In addition to Mendoza, Indiana has a couple of returning stars in wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, DE Mikail Kamara and corner D’Angelo Ponds, but Cignetti had to replace a ton of talent, including standout D-lineman CJ West, from last year’s transfer-laden squad.

Illinois vs. Indiana Prediction, Best Bets

I understand the argument that Illinois is due to come back down to Earth after so many close wins in 2024 (five by seven points or fewer, to be exact). I’m not yet sold on this year’s Indiana squad, though.

While the NFL buzz around Mendoza makes it easy to see Indiana remaining a contender this fall, this team’s performances against elite competition last year left a lot to be desired. While the Hoosiers deserved the credit they received for finishing 11-2, there was no denying or downplaying the gap between IU and the likes of Ohio State and Notre Dame.

In a game between two teams that are tough to evaluate entering conference play, I recommend staying away from the spread.

I’m also torn on the total. Although Altmyer and Mendoza are plenty capable of moving the ball, neither of these offenses put up big numbers against the best defenses they faced last year.

With that in mind, let’s go with a small play on the Under. I also like Indiana to start strong in front of what should be a raucous crowd, which makes the Hoosiers a tempting play to cover the first-quarter spread of 1.5 points.

Best bets:

• Under 52.5 (-110 at DK, FD) — 0.5 units
• Indiana 1Q spread -1.5 (-106 at FD) — 0.5 units

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.