The top game of Week 4 in the NFL takes place today in Kansas City, where the Chiefs (1-2) are home underdogs for the second time in the last three weeks.
Kansas City got its first win of the season last Sunday night after losing to the Chargers in Brazil and the Eagles at home to open the season. The good news for KC is that second-year wide receiver Xavier Worthy is expected to play this afternoon. As we’ll detail below, his return could be huge for an offense that has sorely missed him.
The Ravens (1-2) are facing mounting questions about their defense after getting gashed by the Bills in Week 1 and the Lions in Week 3, with both of those losses coming in primetime.
With DL Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) once again out and DT Travis Jones (knee) and LB Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) questionable, is the Baltimore run defense in for another long day?
How To Watch Ravens vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. EDT
- TV: CBS
Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds: Spread, ML
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| BAL spread | -2.5 (-120) | -2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-120) |
| KC spread | +2.5 (+100) | +2.5 (-104) | +2.5 (+100) |
| BAL ML | -148 | -146 | -150 |
| KC ML | +124 | +126 | +125 |
| Total | 48.5 (o-120; u+100) | 48.5 (o-115; u-105) | 48.5 (o-110; u-110) |
Ravens vs. Chiefs Betting News, Analysis
Oddsmakers will likely remain bullish on both the Ravens and the Chiefs’ playoff chances, no matter what happens today. At the same time, there’s no denying that at 1-3, the loser of today’s Baltimore-Kansas City matchup is going to have an uphill climb.
The Ravens have lost to two of the best teams in the league in the Bills and Lions, and with Bengals QB Joe Burrow out for an extended period, Baltimore could win the AFC North with an underwhelming record.
But barring a surprising loss by the Chargers (3-0) in their battle with the Giants, the Chiefs are either going to be two or three games behind L.A. in the AFC West.
Baltimore Ravens Futures Odds, Betting News
- AFC North winner odds (DK): -350
- AFC winner odds (FD): +300
- Odds to make playoffs (FD): -1250
Outside of Derrick Henry’s three fumbles, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense look as good as ever. The issue for the Ravens is their defense, which was projected to be among the league’s best but has already allowed 400-plus yards twice. Last year, just four Baltimore opponents in 19 games reached that number.
Two-time Pro Bowl D-lineman Nnamdi Madubuike’s absence vs. the Lions proved massive, as the Ravens allowed 224 yards on the ground in a tough loss at home last Monday night. With Madubuike — whose status for the rest of the year is uncertain — once again out today, and fellow defensive starters Jones and Van Noy possibly unavailable, the Ravens are going to need big-time efforts from LB Roquan Smith and the rest of the front seven.
The Baltimore offense is going to once again be without fullback Patrick Ricard today, but tight end Isaiah Likely (questionable, foot) is expected to make his first appearance of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs Futures Odds, Betting News
- AFC West winner odds (DK): +270
- AFC winner odds (FD): +700
- Odds to make playofs (FD): -220
The Chiefs offense is off to one of its worst starts of the Patrick Mahomes era, but reinforcements are on the way. Now, with Worthy back from a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 1, the question is whether the second-year speedster is indeed the missing piece for this offense.
WR Rashee Rice (suspended) should also deliver a boost once he’s back, but he has three games remaining on his six-game suspension. Against a solid Ravens secondary today, it will be interesting to see how Mahomes and the passing game fare after struggling against the Chargers, Eagles and Giants to open the season.
On the other side of the football, the Chiefs’ run D has been one of this team’s biggest strengths over the last couple of seasons. Kansas City struggled on this front against the Giants last Sunday night, though, giving up 130 yards on the ground on 27 carries, including a 10-carry, 60-yard night by rookie Cam Skattebo.
In the last couple of meetings between the Ravens and Chiefs, the Kansas City defense more than held up, especially in the 2023 AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs won that one 17-10 thanks to a dominant defensive effort. They opened last season with a victory over Baltimore despite giving up over 450 yards of total offense. Somehow, they held the Ravens to just 20 points despite struggling to get off the field for most of the night.
Best Ravens vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets
The Ravens got a huge season opener from Derrick Henry, but he’s been bottled up the last two weeks, totaling just 73 yards on 23 carries against Cleveland in Week 2 and Detroit in Week 3.
Those numbers include a 28-yard TD run vs. the Lions. Without that big play, his 22 carries for 45 yards the last two make it fair to question whether the Baltimore O-line and/or Henry have regressed after an incredible 2024 campaign.
This is a good place to note that yes, we’re aware of his 169-yard performance in the season opener, and we’re not writing him off for the rest of the season. Still, against a good rushing defense like Kansas City’s, it’s tempting to take Henry to go under his rushing total today, which is set at 84.5.
In addition to holding Henry to 46 yards on 13 carries in last year’s meeting between these teams, the Chiefs held Philly star Saquon Barkley to 57 yards on 25 carries in the Super Bowl, and they “limited” him to 88 yards on 22 carries two weeks ago. KC might not be as stout against the run right now as it was in 2023 and 2024, but I expect this unit to keep Henry in check today, even if it has to pack the box to get it done.
While the Chiefs have defended elite running backs like Henry well in recent years, they have, on a related note, struggled to stop Lamar Jackson on the ground. He racked up 122 yards on 16 carries in Week 1 last year, and he was also effective against this defense in the 2023 AFC title game, picking up 54 yards on eight carries.
So, let’s throw in a correlated play on Jackson to run for at least 45 yards.
Best prop bets for Ravens vs. Chiefs
- Derrick Henry under 84.5 rushing yards (-113 at DraftKings) — 0.5 units
- Lamar Jackson over 44.5 rushing yards (-112 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units
Ravens vs. Chiefs Prediction, Best Bets
Assuming Xavier Worthy is going to solve all of Kansas City’s offensive issues would be a kneejerk reaction to the return of a second-year player who caught 59 passes in 2024.
That being said, I do think his absence, as well as the quality defenses his team has faced, has had a lot to do with Mahomes and Co.’s rocky start. With Worthy back in action and fourth-year deep threat Tyquan Thornton coming off of a career night vs. the Giants (five catches for 71 yards and a TD on nine targets), the Chiefs might finally be able to open things up enough to get rolling.
I also like Kansas City’s chances of establishing the run. While this has not been a strength so far this year, I’d be shocked if Andy Reid didn’t test the undermanned Ravens front seven — and have at least a little bit of success.
Ultimately, I understand why the Ravens are favored, and I expect Jackson to move the ball. I still like the Chiefs to keep this game close, if not pull off the upset. So, let’s go with Kansas City on the moneyline in another heartbreaker for a Baltimore team that came up just short in the last two matchups between these perennial contenders.
- Chiefs moneyline (+126 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
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