Political analyst Nate Cohn explained why polls may “underestimate” Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances in Tuesday’s presidential election.
With only three days until Election Day, the race remains close between Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.
In an article titled, “So, Can We Trust the Polls?” published on Friday, Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times with a focus on elections and polling, wrote how the polls underestimated Trump in 2016 when he first ran for president and again in 2020 during his reelection campaign.
He wrote that the polls may be more accurate this time around because the COVID-19 pandemic—which evidence suggests skewed polling results—is over and pollsters have made major methodological changes.
However, he added that many pollsters changed how they conduct their polls in hopes of better representing Trump’s supporters—a group believed to be unreachable with traditional polling. Cohn called this assumption about the difficulty of reaching Trump’s base “quite possibly correct.”
“But if that assumption turns out to be wrong, it’s possible that pollsters could overcompensate,” he wrote.
Cohn then posed the possibility of Harris being underestimated in the polls because of pollsters’ concerns of underestimating Trump for a third time.
“Perhaps the very best reason to think the polls might underestimate Kamala Harris this cycle is simply that many pollsters are so concerned—understandably—about underestimating Mr. Trump,” he wrote.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment Saturday morning.
The Case for Underestimating Trump…Again
Cohn also made the case for pollsters underestimating Trump again.
“There’s no reason to believe that pollsters can reach enough less engaged and less educated voters, and there’s every reason to believe Mr. Trump still excels among them,” he wrote.
But on the flip side, he added that “if the polls show Mr. Trump faring better among disengaged voters, it may suggest they’re finally reaching the voters who have been helping Mr. Trump all along.”
What Do the Polls Show?
Poll aggregator 538 has Harris leading Trump a little over 1 point (48 to 46.8 percent) as of Saturday morning. Nate Silver, a leading polling analyst who founded 538 but is no longer affiliated with it, also had Harris slightly ahead on the national stage (48.5 to 47.4 percent) as of Friday afternoon.
However, national polls just predict the popular vote because of America’s Electoral College system, which awards the presidency to the candidate with 270 or more electoral votes, which are distributed to states based on its number of senators and representatives, rather than the overall number of votes cast across the country. At the same time, national polls can help to anticipate trends in state polls.
How Are the Candidates Doing in the Seven Swing States?
Trump and Harris are faring about the same in Pennsylvania. The former president has 47.9 percent of voter support and Harris has 47.7 percent, according to 538’s numbers from Saturday. Trump has a slightly bigger lead in Silver’s polling averages from Friday (48.4 to 47.8 percent).
The two are also very close in Nevada where the former president has a slight lead. Trump has 47.7 percent of support compared to Harris’ 47.3 percent in 538’s polling averages from Saturday. Silver has Trump with 48.3 percent and Harris with 47.7 percent in Nevada as of Friday.
It’s also neck-and-neck among the two in Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by 0.8 points (48.2 to 47.4 percent), according to 538’s numbers from Saturday. Silver’s numbers from Friday have Harris with the same margin but different percentages (48.6 to 47.8 percent).
In Michigan, Harris has a very small edge on Trump. The vice president has 48 percent of support to Trump’s 47 percent, 538 said Saturday. Silver also has Harris slightly ahead of Trump (48.4 to 47.2 percent) as of Friday.
Trump is faring slightly better than Harris in North Carolina, with 538’s numbers from Saturday showing Trump with 48.5 percent and Harris with 47.1 percent. Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by 1.2 points (48.7 to 47.5 percent) in Silver’s numbers from Friday.
The former president’s lead over Harris grows in Georgia and Arizona.
In Georgia, Trump leads Harris 48.6 to 47.1 percent, 538 said Saturday. Silver has Trump ahead of the vice president by slightly more (49.1 to 47.4 percent) as of Friday.
Trump leads Harris by 2.1 points in Arizona (48.8 to 46.7 percent), according to 538’s numbers from Saturday. Meanwhile, Silver’s numbers show the former president leading Harris by 2.2 points (49 to 46.8 percent) as of Friday.
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