Last season, ESPN analyst Jay Bilas caught plenty of criticism from fans for predicting mostly chalk in his NCAA Tournament bracket, calling for all four No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four.
As it turned out, that’s exactly how it played out. He also correctly predicted the champion — the Florida Gators — which raises the question: who does he have this time around?
Bilas made a few tweaks for 2026. In his Final Four, he has the No. 3-seed Michigan State Spartans facing the No. 1-seed Florida Gators, and the No. 2-seed Iowa State Cyclones taking on the No. 1-seed Arizona Wildcats.
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He predicts the Duke Blue Devils — one of this year’s four No. 1 seeds — will lose to Michigan State in the Elite Eight, sending the Spartans to the Final Four and ultimately to the national championship game.
However, Bilas believes Michigan State will fall in the title matchup, with this year’s champion being Arizona, led by head coach Tommy Lloyd, following a dominant season in which they lost just two games and captured both the Big 12 regular-season and conference tournament titles.
“This is a totally different year than last year,” Bilas said. “Last year was the first time all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four since 2008. This year is different. I feel like this year is going to be a little bit more chaotic.
“In the East… I’ve got Michigan State. In the South, I think Florida is the No. 1 seed and is going to hold, but Florida’s not a perfect team. I think the West sets up pretty well for Arizona as a No. 1 seed. So I got Florida and Arizona as the two one seeds that make it. And I really like out of the Midwest, I like Iowa State’s draw.
“And I think droughts could end this year. There hasn’t been a West Coast champion since Arizona in 1997… so I’m gonna have Michigan State and Arizona in the final, with Arizona cutting the nets down.”
Outside of Michigan State making a run to the national title game, some of the most notable picks in Bilas’ bracket include a first-round upset of the No. 11 South Florida Bulls over the No. 6 Louisville Cardinals, as well as a First Four team advancing out of Dayton all the way to the Sweet 16: the No. 11-seed Texas Longhorns.
Bilas has the Longhorns beating the NC State Wolfpack on Tuesday night, then returning to the court Thursday to knock off the No. 6 BYU Cougars, led by top NBA draft prospect AJ Dybantsa, before defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Round of 32.
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