ASEAN-US RELATIONS
On relations with the US under a second Donald Trump presidency, the survey findings reveal “a more cautious and uncertain outlook” across ASEAN, the report said.
At the regional level, 37.7 per cent of respondents believe relations will remain the same, making this the predominant view, the report noted. A combined 32.8 per cent expect improvement, while 29.5 per cent foresee deterioration.
In contrast, last year’s survey found that 39.8 per cent of respondents expected relations to stay unchanged, 46 per cent foresaw improvement and 14.2 per cent anticipated deterioration.
“Compared to last year, optimism appears to have softened, with fewer respondents anticipating clear improvement and more adopting a wait-and-see posture,” said the 2026 report.
The report found that perceptions of what could erode positive impressions of the US were “overwhelmingly” shaped by economic concerns.
Washington’s use of sanctions, tariffs and other trade measures to punish other countries was the dominant concern (43.4 per cent), far outpacing concerns over its military activities, domestic interference and support for Israel or Taiwan, the report showed.
“This marks a notable shift toward geoeconomic anxieties as the primary source of unease regarding Washington’s role in the region,” the report said.
As for how the US can improve relations with ASEAN member states, regional expectations “point clearly” towards a rules-based and economically constructive approach, the report said.
“At the regional level, the top response (38.5 per cent) is that Washington should respect international law and its institutions and not undermine the global system,” the report stated.
This was followed by pursuing free trade and strategic partnerships instead of punitive tariffs (24.9 per cent), as well as respecting national sovereignty and foreign policy autonomy (19.6 per cent).
ON TRUST AND ASEAN NEUTRALITY
For the first time since the survey was conducted in 2019, more than a third of ASEAN respondents trust China to “do the right thing” in the wider interest of the global community, the report said.
A combined 39.8 per cent expressed confidence that China would do the right thing in contributing to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance, compared with 35.2 per cent who had little to no confidence.
That share expressing confidence stood below 20 per cent between 2019 and 2021, before rising to 26.8 per cent in 2022 and increasing steadily since.
High levels of confidence were seen in Laos, Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Timor-Leste. Meanwhile, distrust outweighed trust in the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia.
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