The race for Iowa’s gubernatorial seat just shifted from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” according to a new release from Cook Political Report on Thursday.
The Cook study cites internal polling from both parties that shows Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand leading presumed Republican front-runner Representative Randy Feenstra, along with a significant fundraising edge for Sand.
Why It Matters
The updated rating potentially signals that Democrats have a credible path to flipping the governorship in the Hawkeye State, where recent statewide trends have seen mixed results favoring both Democrats and the GOP.
Trump won the state in the 2024 presidential election by 13 points, CNN reports.
Cook’s analysis highlights Sand’s fundraising and profile as state auditor as factors that could reshape downballot dynamics in a traditionally Republican-leaning environment, while Republicans pointed to the state’s partisan baseline and their track record in statewide contests, the Des Moines Register notes.
What To Know
Cook Political Report analyst Matthew Klein wrote that “The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner.” Cook reported Sand held $13.2 million in cash on hand compared with Feenstra’s $3.2 million, a gap expected to sustain Sand’s statewide media presence through November.
Sand, 43, is the lone Democrat in the field and built a profile as a government watchdog during his tenure as state auditor, while Feenstra, 57, remained the perceived front-runner in the Republican primary ahead of the June 2 contest, according to Cook.
Sand reacted to the report on X Thursday, saying in part in a video, “We know this race is still going to be tough, because Republicans have had complete control over state government for 10 years. We can win it, but we’re going to need your help.”
What People Are Saying
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email on Thursday: “I do not see Iowa going blue in 2028. Its transformation into what has been a solidly Republican state has been striking over past years. The governor’s race being so close reflects the recent inroads Democrats have made in special elections and other off-year ones. This has occurred because of perception of the Republican Trump administration’s disappointing performance in dealing with prices and the overall economy, and overly aggressive and disruptive actions toward undocumented immigrants.
“The Democrats have won these races, or they have lost by much smaller margins than the margins Trump won by in 2024. In these elections, Democratic voters have been mobilized and energized compared to Republicans in these non presidential election year contests. The presidential election is different in this respect. The current disappointments may fade in two and a half years, and presidential elections in the last twenty-five years have been stunningly close, with the parties evenly matched for winning the presidency and also control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. And the stakes have been visibly high, since we have seen how elections have mattered when a new president is elected.”
Iowa Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, on X Thursday: “Do I see the Governor’s Race as a toss up? Not with the Republican record. Iowans don’t want to be Illinois, Virginia, or Minnesota.”
Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann, on X Thursday: “This new @CookPolitical analysis is lazy, naïve, uses Sand internal polling, and regurgitates Democrat talking points — while ignoring @IowaGOP 200,000 voter registration advantage. Sand’s millionaire in-laws may be able to buy him name ID, but they’ve been on their yacht in the Mediterranean for far too long if they think they can buy him votes in Iowa. #IAGov”
Feenstra, also on X Thursday: “Iowa doesn’t want an Extreme Liberal as our next Governor. That’s why, this November, Iowans will reject Extreme Liberal Rob Sand and keep our state red. We will never let Iowa become California, Illinois, or Minnesota.”
What Happens Next
The five-way Republican primary on June 2 will determine Sand’s opponent.
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