Republicans may expect to see a bump in their chances of taking the California governor’s seat after Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell saw his campaign collapse following an exodus of staffers and supporters due to a series of sexual misconduct allegations that have been made against him.
Swalwell, meanwhile, has categorically denied the claims of sexual assault and rape.
Why It Matters
Swalwell had been among the leading Democrats vying to succeed outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom—and one of the frontrunners in a crowded field whose collapse could have broader implications for the party’s chances in November.
California has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, and no GOP candidate has come close in more than a decade.
Any sign of competitiveness—whether in polling, fundraising, or prediction markets—signals a potential shift in voter sentiment in the nation’s largest Democratic stronghold.
What To Know
Even before the allegations surfaced against Swalwell, Republicans saw strong support in the polls carried out by various groups throughout March, with the most recent poll from Democrat-sponsored David Binder Research finding GOP candidate Steve Hilton, who received President Donald Trump’s endorsement, leading the congressman by four points (22 percent to 18 percent).
This is compared to an Evitarus poll that found Hilton in a statistical tie with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also running for the GOP, and Kreate Strategies, which found Hilton leading by five points. In the Kreate poll, which was carried out in the last week of March with 700 likely voters, Swalwell was second to Hilton and tied with billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, who is also vying for the Democrat nomination.
In a poll from Emerson College that was conducted between March 7-9, Swalwell was leading Hilton by four points (17 percent to 13 percent).
Prediction market Kalshi, however, has provided a more fluid and current snapshot of the race, finding Hilton leading the pack for the Republicans and Steyer leading the Democrats, with Hilton receiving 86 percent backing. However, when looking at who is most likely to win overall, Steyer retains a commanding lead of 52 percent, followed by former California Representative Katie Porter at 15 percent and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 14 percent.
Hilton only has a 6.3 percent chance of winning overall, according to Kalshi odds, which makes him the top Republican but the fifth-most likely to win the overall race. However, this is ahead of primaries to be held on June 2, and the political landscape make continue to shift both before and after the final race crystalizes.
What Was Swalwell Accused of?
Swalwell has categorically denied all allegations, calling them “absolutely false” and saying they are “lies” timed to damage him as a frontrunner in the 2026 governor’s race.
He acknowledged unspecified “mistakes in judgment” in his personal life but said those were private matters between him and his wife—not related to the allegations.
“A lot has been said about me today through anonymous allegations,” Swalwell said on Friday night in a video. “And I thought it was important that you see and hear from me directly. These allegations of sexual assault are flat false. They’re absolutely false. They did not happen. They have never happened. And I will fight them with everything that I have. They also come on the eve of an election where I have been the front-runner candidate for governor in California.”
Four women have come forward with allegations of sexual misconduct, that include a sexual assault allegations from a former staffer who said she experienced two non‑consensual encounters. She said one occurred in 2019 while she worked in his district office, and another in 2024 after she had left his staff.
The Manhattan district attorney’s office announced Saturday it has opened an investigation into Swalwell over the alleged 2024 sexual assault that happened in New York.
What People Are Saying
New York Times data journalist Alex Lemonides wrote earlier this month: “The race for governor has become a wide-open contest, with term limits preventing Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, from running for re-election. At least 10 candidates will be on the ballot in the nonpartisan primary.
Republicans typically struggle to win statewide races in deep-blue California, but a large group of Democrats have split the state’s liberal voters, leaving two Republicans near the top of early primary polls. One of the Republicans, Steve Hilton, won the endorsement of President Trump, increasing the likelihood that the Republican base will coalesce behind Mr. Hilton and reducing the chance of two Republicans appearing on the ballot in November.”
Representative Byron Donalds, a Florida Republican, told Kristen Welker’s Meet the Press on Sunday: “These allegations are despicable and they demean the integrity of Congress. These things are just completely unacceptable.”
Corrin Rankin, chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Newsweek in March: “Poll after poll shows Californians are tired of the decades of failure and corruption by Democrats, and they are turning to Republicans for real solutions and leadership on issues like affordability, public safety, and homelessness.”
What Happens Next
Mail voting is scheduled to begin in early May, with the top-two primary set for June 2.
Observers will watch whether Trump’s endorsement continues to consolidate Republican support behind Hilton, whether Democrats coalesce around one or two candidates, and whether additional polling shifts alter expectations before ballots are cast.
Read the full article here
