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Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Breakdown
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview
One of the biggest storylines of the week was whether Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava would be active after he missed the second half of last week’s win over Mississippi State with a possible concussion, but he has been cleared to play tonight.
The story of Tennessee’s season, however, has been its phenomenal defense. For all the offseason talk of coach Josh Heupel’s offense being one of the most prolific in the country, and Iamalaeava having a chance to win the Heisman, the Vols have been winning low-scoring games week in and week out since conference play started.
After torching Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State back in September, the Vols have gone 5-1 in the SEC despite cracking 30 points just once. This D is allowing just 12.6 points per game, good for fifth-best in the nation.
Per ESPN’s SP+, the Vols have the No. 3 defense in the nation, behind only Ohio State and Penn State.
Offensively, Iamaleava has had an up-and-down run through conference play. He made just enough plays for the Vols to take down Florida and Alabama in close wins in October, but he’s thrown for 200-plus yards just once in the five SEC games he’s started and finished.
But thanks to their outstanding defense and star RB Dylan Sampson (201 carries for 1,129 yards and 20 TDs), the Vols have been able to spend most of the season in the top 10 of the AP poll, and they’re currently No. 7 in the all-important CFP poll.
Despite underwhelming production from its passing game throughout SEC play, the Vols strike us a live dog on the road in Athens tonight.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Preview
With a win tonight, Georgia (currently No. 12 in the CFP and No. 11 in the AP poll) will climb back into the top 10 in both polls, but this is not the dominant UGA team we’ve seen in recent years.
On the road against Texas back in Week 8, Georgia looked like the squad that rolled to back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022.
But otherwise, QB Carson Beck’s struggles in big games this year, and a loaded defense that has looked surprisingly beatable at times this year, have rendered Georgia vulnerable against good teams, especially ones with deep, outstanding D-lines like Tennessee’s.
Ole Miss is No. 11 in the country for good reason, with dominant wins over South Carolina and Arkansas prior to last week’s massive W over Georgia, but what the Rebels did to the Bulldogs last Saturday made it hard to view Kirby Smart’s team as a national title contender.
Beck threw an interception and completed just 20-of-31 passes for 186 yards, and the running game was completely stifled. Ole Miss not only beat Georgia 28-10, but did so while dominating the Dawgs offense. UGA was held to 245 yards in the loss, including just 59 yards rushing on 33 carries.
Can Carson Beck turn it around?
With nine interceptions and just five TD passes — with all five TDs coming against 4-5 Florida and 2-8 Mississippi State — in the last four weeks, Beck has not even resembled the player who entered this season as a legit Heisman candidate.
Below are his numbers vs. Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, the three teams he’s faced this year that are comparable to Tennessee defensively.
Each team’s defensive ranking per ESPN’s SP+ is in parentheses.
- at Alabama (No. 12): 27-for-50 (54 percent), 439 yards, 3 TDs, 3 int
- at Texas (No. 4): 23-for-41 (56.1 percent), 175 yards, 0 TDs, 3 int
- at Ole Miss (No. 5): 20-for-31 (64.5 percent), 186 yards, 0 TDs, 1 int
Obviously, he’ll need to do drastically better than that for Georgia to reach the SEC title game and/or CFP.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction
I don’t blame anyone for expecting Smart’s Dawgs to come out with their hair on fire in this game and avoid losing back-to-back games.
But as we’ve alluded to, this is a bad matchup for Beck and the Georgia offense. The absence of star RB Trevor Etienne, who is out due to a rib injury, makes it that much harder to see UGA successfully moving the ball on a stingy Tennessee D that held Alabama to 17 points.
Points will be at a premium for both these offenses, but we like Tennessee to cover in a low-scoring game. We also think the Vols are an intriguing longshot to win this one outright thanks to Sampson, future first-round pass rusher James Pearce Jr. and their excellent D.
Below are the plays we feel the best about, and the units we’d recommend wagering, in this can’t-miss clash.
Tennesse vs. Georgia Best Bets
- Tennessee +8.5 (-110 at bet365) 1 unit
- Under 47 (-110 at DraftKings) 1 units
- First half under (EVEN at bet365) 0.50 units
- Tennessee moneyline (+295 at DK) 0.25 units
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