Picking out the top 49ers vs. Colts player prop bets ahead of tonight’s MNF showdown in Indianapolis is tricky given the uncertainty around what we’ll see from 44-year-old Philip Rivers for the Colts (8-6).
Rivers helped Indianapolis keep last week’s trip to Seattle close in his first game in over five years, and it will be interesting to see how he fares tonight after a full week of practice with his new teammates.
For San Francisco (10-4), which is on a four-game winning streak — with all four wins coming by double digits — the question is whether Brock Purdy can stay hot (spoiler alert, I think the answer to that question is “yes”) following his best game of the season last Sunday against Tennessee.
But before diving into the case for another big game by Purdy, I’d like to explain why Colts WR Josh Downs should be a beneficiary of Rivers’ need to get rid of the football quickly.
Josh Downs 4+ Receptions (+107 at DK) — 1 unit
Downs has put up underwhelming yardage numbers the last four weeks, with a total of just 90 receiving yards in Weeks 12-15, but his volume of targets has been encouraging.
He was targeted six times apiece in Weeks 13 and 14, then drew five targets apiece in each of his team’s last two games.
He only cashed this prop once in this stretch. Still, the opportunity to bet on an underneath receiver who is getting a consistently steady diet of looks is hard to resist.
The other reason to like Downs tonight is the high likelihood that Rivers will be peppering the Niners with short passes. To limit the hits he would have to take last week, Colts coach Shane Steichen made sure Rivers mostly avoided deep passes.
Indianapolis was successful in that regard. While Rivers threw for just 120 yards, he only threw one interception, and he was sacked just once, for a loss of two yards, against one of the best defenses in the league.
I’m not bullish on Downs finally exploding for a big game downfield, but I expect him to be a top target underneath given the way Indy will likely work around Rivers’ athletic limitations.
Brock Purdy o247.5 yards passing (-113 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
Purdy has started just six games this year due to injuries. Last week, he recorded his second-best day of the season in terms of passing yardage (295), and also posted season-best numbers in terms of completion percentage (76.7) and yards per attempt (9.8).
Call me a prisoner of the moment, but I expect Purdy to once again have plenty of success throwing downfield tonight. He’s not only coming off a season-best showing, but he’s facing an Indy D that is A) missing top corners Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner and B) coming off a couple of impressive showings against the run.
Last week, the Colts held Seattle to just 50 yards rushing on 22 carries. On the year, Indy has allowed the fewest yards per carry in the league at 3.7. Indy is also among the league leaders in rushing yards allowed per game, which should produce a pass-heavy approach by Purdy and the Niners.
The undermanned Indy secondary has allowed at least 247 yards passing in four straight weeks, and I expect the absences of Ward and Gardner to once again be sorely felt tonight.
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