The Bush family could revitalize their political dynasty as Jonathan Bush, cousin of former President George W. Bush, considers a run for governor in Maine.
Why It Matters
Bush-style conservatism has been on the outs in the modern GOP, as President Donald Trump’s brand of politics has dominated the party over the past decade since his first presidential bid in 2016.
In 2022, George P. Bush’s defeat in the Texas attorney general GOP primary was viewed as the potential end of the decades-long political dynasty. But Jonathan Bush has taken steps to launch a gubernatorial campaign in Maine, a Democratic-leaning state with an independent streak, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
What To Know
Maine Governor Janet Mills’ retirement at the end of her term leaves open the Maine gubernatorial office, which has been held by both Democrats and Republicans over the years. Jonathan Bush is taking early steps to prepare for a potential gubernatorial run.
Former President Bush and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush held a fundraiser for Jonathan Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine, this week, reported The Bangor Daily News. He has also launched an exploratory committee for governor and, earlier this year, began a nonprofit “Maine for Keeps” that works on issues like housing and the economy.
His potential run could be a chance to rekindle the Bush dynasty.
But how successful a comeback for the Bush family in the Trump era could be remains to be seen, as Jonathan Bush would have to contend with a new iteration of the GOP and a state where Democrats typically have an advantage if he decides to run.
Is There Room for a Bush in the Trump GOP?
Ronald Schmidt, professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine, told Newsweek that there are still Republicans in the state who would be open to supporting a Bush.
“There are still Republicans in Maine who have fond memories of the Bush family, and some who support an idea of moderate, or at least non-Trumpish, conservatism who could well be open to such a candidate, and there are Republicans who hope to follow Trump’s political path. I don’t think it’s been established yet which faction is stronger,” he said.
Mainers “like the image of themselves as independents,” he said.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, but not by an overwhelming margin. What will be key in the gubernatorial race is candidates’ ground game and mobilization, he said.
“As for Jonathan Bush, his family’s support, in regard to fundraising, name recognition, and endorsement are nothing to discount. And, of course, the Bush family has been skillful at moving between many GOP factions, including the right-wing,” he said.
Dan Shea, a professor of political science at Colby College, told Newsweek that a divide remains between Bush-style and Trump-style Republicans in Maine.
“Republicans in state are really roughly divided between the more Bush-like traditional Republican, the more Yankee Republica, and the Trump-LePage Republican. My best guess is about 50-50,” he said, referring to the state’s former GOP Governor Paul LePage.
While the Trump-like GOP faction may “not warm to a Bush super fast,” there is still a “very large, pragmatic, centrist piece of the Maine electorate,” Shea said.
Republicans typically need to focus on fiscal conservatism, but carve out more moderate policy on social issues, to win in Maine, he said.
The decision to hold a small fundraiser in Kennebunkport, a wealthy coastal town in the state’s southernmost region, may not play well with some of the more rural, Trump Republicans, he said.
“That he would have a fundraiser with just a handful of people in Kennebunkport, that doesn’t play particularly well to much of rural Maine,” he said. “Kennebunkport is very distinct. It’s very different.”
Another challenge for Bush could be the general election, when he will face a Democratic candidate. Although the state has not elected consecutive governors from the same party for decades, the state has gotten bluer in recent years, he said. Mills handily won reelection in 2022, and while the state shifted a bit to Trump last November, it did so by a smaller margin than most other states, he said.
Costas Panagopoulos, a Northeastern University political science professor, told Newsweek that many Americans are “skeptical” about political dynasties, but having that name recognition could be an advantage over other Republican candidates, particularly in a more crowded field.
“The Bush family name still carries a lot of weight in places like Maine,” he said.
While the GOP has moved away from the Bush family legacy, there are still some Republican voters who are “uncomfortable with the direction of the Trump Republican Party” and look back more nostalgically at the Bush years, he said.
A candidate like Jonathan Bush would have to balance winning over those independent, moderate voters while also appealing to GOP primary voters who are closer to Trump’s style of politics, Panagopoulos said.
However, Maine could be “solid ground” for a Bush revival because of historical support for more moderate candidates, he said.
Republican Senator Susan Collins, viewed as the most moderate in the Senate, for instance, has won reelection in recent years despite the state’s blue tint in other races.
Brandon Rottinghaus,a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek that Bush-style politics are “like the anti-MAGA,” and that the “tone and issue profile of most modern Republicans are different from the Bush family politics.”
“Republican primary audiences are now conditioned to a more aggressive breed of conservatism, one district from the Bush family political legacy,” he said.
Trump and the Bushes Have Complicated Relationship
The relationship between former President Bush and Trump has been strained. The former president has not endorsed or vocally supported Trump, and he criticized the administration’s gutting of USAID earlier this year.
Trump has been more vocal in his attacks against Bush on topics including his handling of the September 11, 2001, terror attacks and his foreign policy record during his time in the Oval Office. That divide has been a defining dynamic of Republican politics, as Bush and other more traditional conservatives have largely lost their grip on the GOP to Trump.
His critiques of the Bushes go back more than a decade, with him writing that the U.S. needs “another Bush in office about as much as we need Obama to have a 3rd term” in a January 2013 post to X.
Trump and Jeb Bush were also chief rivals during the 2016 GOP presidential primary, when the two frequently traded barbs.
A Gallup poll released earlier this year found that 93 percent of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, while 63 percent viewed Bush favorably. Among all Americans, however, Bush was viewed more favorably. Fifty-two percent of Americans viewed him favorably, compared to 48 percent who viewed Trump favorably.
The poll surveyed 1,001 American adults from January 21 to January 27, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
If Jonathan Bush runs, he would be joining several other relatives of well-known politicians in the state. Both the son of Senator Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, and the daughter of Representative Chellie Pingree, a Democrat, are already in the race for governor.
Jonathan Bush’s nonprofit “Maine for Keeps” highlights his support to help the state “build a sustainable, independent economy.” The website also includes a “Wall of Shame” that calls attention to what he views as “straight-out mistakes with the implementation of government programs to upside-down rules and regulations that make it harder for Maine people to get ahead.”
What People Are Saying
Northeastern University political science professor Costas Panagopoulos told Newsweek: “Things for a Bush might have been very different before the Trump era, when the legacy of his cousin was more prominent in peoples’ minds. Peoples’ memories of the Bush presidency have now faded somewhat, and any criticism of George W. Bush or even HW Bush before that might pale in comparison to how people feel about Donald Trump and what is happening with Republican politics.”
A spokesperson for Jonathan Bush told The Bangor Daily News: “He’s been fortunate to receive the support and counsel of Mainers from all over the state and all walks of life, and especially proud to have his family standing strongly by his side.”
Jonathan Bush wrote on the website for Maine for Keeps: “My family has been in Maine since the 1890s. My wife Fay’s family has been here since the 1700s. Like so many others, we’ve chosen to make Maine our home and raise our children here because, quite simply, there is no better place to do that. The natural beauty, the town character, and the great people just can’t be beat.
“But what about our business environment? Sure it’s stunningly beautiful and that helps attract people. We’ve also got a population of resilient, independent, hard-working citizens who have learned to adapt to whatever the next challenge may be.”
What Happens Next
Jonathan Bush could announce his candidacy in the coming months. The Democratic primary, meanwhile, remains crowded with several prominent candidates in the race. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as being Likely Democratic.
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