SECURITY, PROSPERITY, AUTONOMY
That is not to say that middle power deals are unimportant. Quite the opposite: Even the India-Malaysia deal opens a new frontier that would not otherwise exist, and an India-ASEAN one would be significant in covering a population size (2.1 billion) larger than the EU-India “mother of all deals”.
Over time, middle powers will also likely build institutions and issues-based alliances on top of these free trade deals to mobilise larger-scale partnerships. With enough coordination, replacing certain trade goods from US-China might even be possible, even at a lower technology standard.
The only reality that middle powers would have to contend with is that they cannot escape the “impossible trinity” that you cannot have security, prosperity and autonomy at the same time.
If they want more autonomy in deciding their future outside of US-China’s control, they have to sacrifice some prosperity. Since no middle powers are ready to accept this trade-off, they will have to just do more by trading more with great powers and middle powers.
The India-Malaysia deal is an indication of a busier world that still holds an idealism of chasing the impossible trinity.
James Chai is a Visiting Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, with a newsletter on global affairs. He writes a monthly column for CNA, published every second Friday.
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