When China implemented its one-child policy in 1980, it not only raised the barriers to marriage but also made divorce easier, further exacerbating the crisis. The divorce rate soared from 0.3 per 1,000 people in 1980 to 3.4 in 2019.
Hence, in 2021, China implemented a new civil code, following the example of the United Kingdom and France, to require a 30-day cooling-off period for divorce. But while this reduced the divorce rate to two per 1,000 people, it had rebounded to 2.6 by 2023 – much higher than Japan’s rate (1.5).
FIRST BIRTH AT OLDER AGE
The reproductive window for Chinese men and women is very short. A woman typically has 12 per cent of her eggs left by age 30, and only 3 per cent by 40.
The risk of miscarriage increases from 10 per cent for women under 30 to 20 per cent at 35, between 33 per cent and 40 per cent at 40, and between 57 per cent and 80 per cent at 45. The chance of conceiving a child with Down syndrome increases with the mother’s age, rising from one in 2,000 at age 20 to one in 350 at age 35, and up to one in 30 at age 45.
As the age of marriage is postponed, interest in raising children also declines.
That is why about two-thirds of babies worldwide are born to women aged 30 and under. In 2021, the mean age of mothers at first birth was 27 in the United States, 27 in Mexico, and only 21 in India.
By comparison, the mean age at first birth for Chinese women has risen from 25 in 2000 to 28 in 2020, with an accelerating increase in recent years. In Shanghai, it increased from 30 in 2019 to 32 in 2024.
Worse, the overall infertility rate in China has increased from between 1 per cent and 2 per cent in the 1970s to 18 per cent in 2020. More and more people are becoming infertile after marriage or after having their first child.
Read the full article here
