Democrats and Republicans are in a tight race for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, according to a new poll.
Why It Matters
Republicans are hoping to make the race competitive, with former Senator John Sununu and Scott Brown, ex-Massachusetts senator, both participating in the September primary. But Democrats believe a favorable national environment, fueled by President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating, gives them an advantage in the New Hampshire race. Trump lost New Hampshire by fewer than 3 percentage points in the 2024 election.
The party in the White House historically loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats have recently overperformed in special and state elections, boosting the party’s optimism for midterms. However, Democrats face a difficult map to take back control of the Senate, needing to hold all of their seats and flip four Republican seats. Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress and are seeking to maintain that control after the midterms.
What To Know
An Emerson College Polling survey, conducted March 21 and 23 among 1,000 likely voters, found Democratic Representative Chris Pappas ahead of the two aforementioned Republican candidates for the Senate seat.
Sununu, who previously served in the House and Senate, has Trump’s endorsement. Sununu’s family is well-known in New Hampshire politics, as his father, John H. Sununu, and brother Chris Sununu both served as the state’s governor. Brown served as a U.S. senator from Massachusetts from 2010 to 2013. Brown also served as the U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa during Trump’s first term and ran for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire in 2014.
A sub-poll of 524 likely Republican primary voters Republican primary found Sununu as the clear leader, with 48 percent to Brown’s 19 percent. A third of participants were undecided. The sub-poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
In a hypothetical matchup, the poll found Pappas nearly tied with Sununu, 45 percent to 44 percent, with 11 percent undecided. In a second matchup, Pappas held a bigger lead against Brown, 48 percent to 39 percent, and 13 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
The recent poll from Saint Anselm College also showed Pappas ahead in matchups against Brown and Sununu. Pappas led by 3 points against Sununu, 46 percent to 43 percent. He held a more comfortable lead against Brown, 47 percent to 38 percent. The poll surveyed 1,491 registered voters in New Hampshire from March 16 to 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Other polling has also given Pappas a lead over both Republicans. Earlier this year, a University of New Hampshire poll showed Pappas up 10 points over Brown, 52 percent to 42 percent, and 5 points over Sununu, 50 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 2,017 likely voters from January 15 to 19.
A poll from the NH Journal and Praecones Analytica showed Pappas up 18 points over Brown, 46 percent to 28 percent, and about 6 points over Sununu, 42 percent to 36 percent. It surveyed 603 voters from December 26 to 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: ““In a matchup between Pappas and Sununu, women break for Pappas by a nine-point margin, 49% to 40%, while men support Sununu by six points, 48% to 42%. Voters under 40 support Pappas by a 23-point margin, 54% to 31%, along with voters over 70 by a six-point margin, 51% to 45%, while voters in their 50s and 60s break for Sununu by 12 points, 51% to 39%.”
Neil Levesque, the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, wrote in a polling release earlier this month: “War and economic uncertainty are creating headwinds for Republicans in New Hampshire, putting Congressman Chris Pappas in a stronger position than in our previous survey.”
John Sununu said in a March 18 X post: “In the Senate, my focus will be to grow our economy. It’s time to create more jobs and make life more affordable for every Granite Stater.”
Scott Brown said March 23 X post: “In New Hampshire, we have strong Republican majorities in Concord (16-8 State Senate, 216-176 State House). But every time we take a step forward at home, the Democrat monopoly in Washington pulls us two steps back. While our state leaders fight for your freedom, our all-Democrat federal delegation acts as a rubber stamp for the Washington Establishment.
What Happens Next
The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for September 8, a little less than two months ahead of the general election on November 3.
Read the full article here
