President Donald Trump’s approval rating has sunk to new second‑term lows, with fresh polling showing a deepening weakness among independent voters.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment via email.
Last week, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that the president had “already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that [he] remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
Why It Matters
Independent voters often decide close races, and new data that shows Trump significantly underwater with this bloc could shape the 2026 midterm landscape.
What To Know
Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, has reported that a sharp decline in Trump’s approval rating is being driven by a single, decisive factor: independents.
“When you lose the center of the electorate, you lose the American people,” he said on Monday.
Enten said during a live segment that at this stage in Trump’s first term, his net approval rating among independent voters stood 17 points below water.
Now, according to Quinnipiac polling, that figure has widened to 27 points underwater—a significant deterioration with the voters most likely to swing between parties.
The Quinnipiac poll Enten cited surveyed 1,191 self‑identified registered voters nationwide from January 29 to February 2 via live phone interviews, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, including design effect.
Enten said independents represented the political center of gravity in national elections, and that when the group moved decisively away from a president, the consequences tended to be broad and lasting.
Approval numbers this far below water, he said, rarely ended well for a governing party, particularly in competitive House districts and closely divided Senate races.
Rather than showing improvement over his first term, Trump’s standing with independents has worsened.
Enten said that trajectory undercut arguments that the president had strengthened his position with the electorate since returning to office and instead pointed to mounting vulnerability as the midterms approach.
He added that Trump’s current numbers with independents were so weak that traditional comparisons to other presidents offered limited insight.
Instead, Trump’s performance is now best measured against his own past, as he continues to set new lows with the center of the electorate.
What People Are Saying
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement last week: “President Trump was overwhelmingly elected by nearly 80 million Americans to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, said on Monday: “I don’t understand how this works out well for the president of the United States. When you are 27 points below water—underwater with the center of the electorate, with independents—you lose; your party loses.
“You know, I’ve made the comparisons before, you know, ‘Oh, he’s more underwater than Greg Louganis.’ I’ve made the comparisons with all those different divers.
“And the bottom line is this, you can continue to make those, but over time, when you keep making those same comparisons, they run a little bit old. But at this point, I don’t really know who to even compare Donald Trump to because he’s just so low, and he’s so low with the center of the electorate.”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier this month: “The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!”
What Happens Next
With independents showing deep and sustained opposition, upcoming polls will be closely watched for signs of stabilization—or further erosion—as campaigns shift into full midterm mode and voter sentiment hardens.
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