President Donald Trump’s approval rating numbers have become “very boring”, Nate Silver has said.
Writing in his Substack blog Silver Bulletin, the statistician and political analyst said that while the president’s approval rating had previously declined consistently, it has now reached a “steady state.”
Why It Matters
In the first few months of his second term, Trump’s popularity has fluctuated, with some polls more favorable than others. Sustained backlash to his policies in surveys could persuade the president to change his approach while a plateau could indicate Trump’s relationship with the public is becoming more stable.
What To Know
Silver wrote: “If you’re a close follower of Donald Trump’s approval rating, you know that last week’s numbers were very boring.”
He said that since August 1 and August 11, Trump’s net approval rating has fluctuated between -8.5 and -8.9 percentage points. Previously, fluctuations had been larger.
“After the relatively consistent decline in Trump’s approval between June and late July, we’ve reached another steady state,” he said.
Silver’s analysis follows a period of negative polling regarding the president.
In July, Silver said Trump’s approval rating had “had started to drop more quickly.”
According to a YouGov polling for U.K. newspaper The Times, the proportion of people who disapprove of Trump’s job performance had increased from 52 percent in April to 57 percent in July.
According to polling by The Economist/YouGov, the proportion of people who disapprove of the president’s job performance has plateaued at 55 percent since mid-July.
Newsweek analysis also revealed that Trump’s approval rating is positive in 18 of the states he won in the 2024 election, and negative in the 13 other states.
What People Are Saying
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of the Surrey in the U.K, told Newsweek the steadiness seen in the polls was due to people being “on a break from politics.”
“Like much of the rest of the Western world, Americans were largely on vacation at the beginning of this month. Congress is on recess and Trump has been golfing in Scotland and elsewhere. He’ll say he ended a war, got a great trade deal and Lord knows what else. But at this time of the year, everyone’s on a break from politics and the steady state is because for a couple of weeks, nobody really cares. Everything could change dependent on the outcome of Putin’s visit to Alaska next week, if it happens. Until then, wars continue to rage in Gaza and Ukraine, prices edge up and the U.S. remains as divided as ever. -8.9 doesn’t feel like a golden age.”
Silver added in his blog: “[T]hat doesn’t mean things have actually been slow for Trump. On Wednesday, Trump announced that he plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska this week…The latest round of tariffs also took effect at the beginning of the month. But as usual, negotiations with many countries are ongoing.”
Speaking last week on the Politics War Room podcast, Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst said Trump was facing “low and concerning approval numbers.”
“There’s a negative feeling about things,” he said. “People don’t like chaos.”
“There’s material out there that Democrats can find success in 2025 and 2026 with mostly just in frustration with the current administration and with Congress,” he said.
What Happens Next
Trump is to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.
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