During his address Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), President Donald Trump predicted that the Republican Party will perform “fantastically well” in the 2026 midterm elections, defying the historical trend of the current president’s party losing congressional seats.
Why It Matters
Typically, although there are exceptions, the political party currently in the White House loses congressional seats during the midterm elections.
The 2024 election gave Republicans control of the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and White House. If Republicans hold their majority through the 2026 midterms, Trump could enjoy four years of a Republican-led Congress supporting his agenda, along with a conservative-majority Supreme Court.
What To Know
Trump opened his speech in Maryland on Saturday by touting his staff, naming allies, and reflecting on his high polling numbers. Part way through his speech, he said, “With the help of so many incredible supporters here today, we are going to forge a new and lasting political majority that will drive American politics for generations to come.”
CPAC is an annual gathering of leading conservative voices and Make America Great Again (MAGA) activists. This year’s four-day event featured Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Argentina’s President Javier Milei, among others.
The president then predicted that the party is going to “do fantastically well in the midterms.”
“We’re at a level—I don’t think we have been at this level maybe ever, as a Republican Party. We are a bigger, better, stronger party than ever before. More people in our party than ever before,” he said.
Newsweek has reached out to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for comment via email on Saturday.
In last year’s election, Trump won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, securing over 77 million votes and beating out then-Vice President Kamala Harris. The Republican president won all seven swing states, and more than 89 percent of counties shifted redder, according to The New York Times.
Several high-stakes Senate races are already set for November 2026, including in Michigan following Democratic Senator Gary Peters’ decision not to seek reelection, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine.
In order for Democrats to regain control of the House, they would need a net gain of three seats, and a net gain of four in the Senate. Voter turnout in midterm elections is significantly lower than general elections.
Previous Midterm Election Results
In the most recent midterm elections in 2022, held during Democratic President Joe Biden’s term, Republicans won control of the House, while Democrats retained a slim majority in the Senate. The election saw relatively high voter turnout, with Democrats outperforming initial forecasts.
During Trump’s first term, the 2018 midterm elections resulted in significant political shifts. Democrats gained 40 seats in the House, flipping control of the chamber, and captured seven governorships. Meanwhile, Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate.
While typically the party in the White House doesn’t fare as well during midterms, that was not the case in the 2002 midterms. Republican President George W. Bush saw his party make notable gains a year after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, gaining eight seats in the House and two in the Senate.
What People Are Saying
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket, an election analysis and forecasting organization, wrote in an X, formerly Twitter, post in January: “One side effect here is because these voters mostly don’t vote in midterms, Dems could very plausibly change ~nothing and still win the national vote comfortably in 2026 while flipping the House and the Maine/North Carolina senate seats, before running into similar issues in 2028.”
Blake Allen, an attorney with 19,500 followers on X, wrote in a February 13 post: “It’s cold comfort for Democrats, but if Republicans move forward with the mix of: cutting Medicaid, cutting SNAP, cutting the taxes of corporations & rich Americans all the while raising taxes on the poor/middle class through tariffs the 2026 midterms are going to be wild.”
Red Eagle Politics, a political commentary account with over 105,000 followers on X, wrote in a January post: “Both insane electoral hubris and total defeatism are bad for 2026. We’re not guaranteed an asterisk midterm (party in power gains) just because Trump won, and an asterisk midterm is still possible if we put in the work.”
What Happens Next?
Although the midterm elections are not until November 3, 2026, campaigning and fundraising for key races are expected to ramp up soon.
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