Former President Donald Trump has seen his odds of winning the 2024 presidential election improve over the past few hours according to a prominent bookmaker, driven by changes in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
At 4:20 a.m. ET on Tuesday, U.K.-based betting company Betfair gave the Republican nominee odds of 4/6 (60 percent) for victory, compared to 6/4 (40 percent) for his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. However, by 12:50 p.m. ET, Trump’s odds had been cut to 5/8 (61.5 percent) while Harris’ were lengthened to 8/5 (38.5 percent).
Voters are heading to the polls across the United States for what recent polling indicates will be a razor-thin contest. An analysis of recent surveys published on Tuesday morning by election website 538 put Harris 1.2 points ahead of Trump in the national vote, with 48 percent of the vote against 46.8 percent. However, because of the Electoral College system, Trump could lose the popular vote but still win the election, as he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
The change in overall Betfair odds since this morning was driven by an improvement in Trump’s odds in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Arizona.
In Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes, Trump’s odds of winning went from 52 percent on Tuesday morning to 58 percent, according to Betfair. Over the same period, Trump’s odds of victory in Arizona, which comes with 11 Electoral College votes, improved from 73 percent to 78 percent.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek: “Punters’ [bettors’] faith in the former president continues to grow as the Republicans appear to be edging closer to victory in two key swing states—Arizona and Pennsylvania.
“The Republicans are now 2/7 [78 percent chance] to win in Arizona and 5/7 [58 percent chance] in Pennsylvania,” Rosbottom said. “Trump’s odds have shortened in both states in the last few hours. He is ahead in five of the seven swing states.”
Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment on Tuesday by email.
An artificial intelligence-based model created by Aaru for media outlet Semafor has Harris favored to win five out of seven battleground states.
The model, which is based on the creation of “a thousand or more” AI bots for each state representing voters, concluded the vice president is most likely to win in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, Trump had the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. If all other states repeat their 2020 election outcomes, it would be enough to give Harris the victory.
The final election forecast released by 538 on Tuesday found Harris with a 50 percent chance of winning the election, just ahead of Trump on 49 percent. The data was based on 1,000 election simulations and last updated at 6 a.m. ET.
However, a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecast published on Tuesday gave Trump a 54 percent chance of victory to Harris’ 46 percent. The mean projection gave the Republican victory with 276 Electoral College votes (270 are needed to win), ahead of Harris’ 262.
Speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, while casting his vote, Trump insisted he would concede if he loses a “fair” election.
“If I lose an election, if it’s a fair election, I’d be the first one to acknowledge it,” he said. “So far, I think it’s been fair.”
Trump is continuing to insist the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him via fraud, though the claim has been repeatedly rejected in courts and by independent election experts.
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