This coming weekend marks the conclusion of the English Premier League season and thus the final chance for those of us who play – and what an insufficient term that seems – Fantasy Premier League (FPL) to garner sufficient points to ascend our mini-leagues, seize the crown, or simply avoid the ignominy of a last-place finish. It’s no coincidence that this virtual pursuit thrives at Man Group, with strategies refined at the coffee machines and water fountains and a palpable sense each Monday morning of who flourished or stumbled in the weekend’s games.
Regular readers will know how much I appreciate the connections between finance and sport, and FPL presents perhaps the clearest convergence. When I was at university, I used to play Fantasy NBA religiously; when I moved to the UK, I adopted the local religion: FPL. It’s something I’ve spoken about at length with Cade Massey at The Wharton School – his rankings are crucial to a successful Fantasy NFL strategy.
The parallels between hedge fund investing and the world of FPL are as numerous as they are profound. Like financial analysts scrutinising market data, skilled FPL managers dive deeply into data; expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA) and goal involvements (xGI) in football mirror the role of P/E ratios, dividend yields or free cash flow in markets. But the similarities run even deeper.
One of the most compelling parallels between FPL management and hedge fund investing lies in the influence of behavioural finance. Just as investors succumb to biases – home bias, anchoring, sunk cost fallacies – FPL managers are equally prone. How many of us stubbornly hold onto a premium player because of the emotional investment in finally bringing him into our squads, then hate transfer him out when he blanks (I’m looking at you, Erling)? Or perhaps we irrationally favour players from the teams we support, ignoring better value elsewhere due to loyalty-driven “home bias.” Systematic strategies offer a powerful antidote. By using disciplined, data-driven frameworks – a rules-based transfer policy or captaincy algorithm – managers can mitigate emotional biases, make clearer decisions, and ultimately achieve more consistent, rational returns. The 2024/25 season served as an emphatic reminder that understanding and overcoming behavioural pitfalls is just as important in FPL as in financial markets.
Let’s think of clubs as economic environments and players as individual stocks. Just as an investor considers the macroeconomic conditions of a market before picking specific stocks within it, an FPL manager must assess team context alongside individual talent. Spurs, for example, were an unstable “economy” this year. Despite hosting a range of proven assets such as Heung-min Son and Dominic Solanke, their collective performance was disappointing. Conversely, Newcastle represented a thriving economic environment, amplifying the returns of key assets like Alexander Isak. That said, “stocks” – players – can thrive even in the context of underperforming “economies”: just look at the returns this year of Jarod Bowen and Bruno Fernandes, delivering points even as their teams struggled.
Two fundamental investment strategies – value and momentum – have clear FPL analogies. Indeed I’d go as far as to say that an FPL player who masters the interaction of these two strategies will have come close to perfecting FPL.
Value investing in FPL means identifying players priced below their intrinsic potential, particularly early in the season. Yoane Wissa of Brentford exemplified this approach. Initially modestly priced at £6m, he has delivered 184 points so far, outperforming significantly and seeing his valuation surge as managers caught on. Similarly, Chris Wood of Nottingham Forest – another £6m forward – consistently delivered returns far exceeding initial expectations, becoming one of the season’s standout “value stocks.”
Momentum investing is about identifying and capitalising on performance trends, knowing when to buy in and, crucially, when to step away. Early in the season, Erling Haaland epitomised momentum – managers who captained him enjoyed significant gains. But as his form declined sharply mid-season, those who clung to him too long suffered relative underperformance.
The challenge, as always, was timing the market correctly. Haaland was, of course, the highest price FPL asset ever, and required managers to radically rein in spending elsewhere in order to accommodate his initial £15m price tag. Riding a hot streak – whether that be a player or a team – is about getting in early and keeping a close eye on the data for signs of a reversal. Those who got on Nottingham Forest defenders in September or October benefited from a fantastic first three-quarters of the season; returns since then have been patchier, but if you’d bought Ola Aina and Nikola Milenković at their initial £4.5m price tags, you would have ridden their rise in value and been able to recycle that profit into other opportunities – perhaps at Everton or Fulham – to whom the baton of momentum has passed.
Dispersion, another familiar concept to investors, was notably evident this season. A handful of elite players generated disproportionate returns. Mohamed Salah has amassed an extraordinary – and record – 330 points so far. Captaining Salah – you get double points for your captain – was almost always the right decision – just ask a chess Grand Master. Although, once the title was won for Liverpool, Salah’s form dropped off a cliff.
Meanwhile, the performance spread among mid-tier assets widened, creating distinct winners and losers. This dispersion required managers to carefully balance their squads – maintaining steady exposure to what we might term the “Fab 5” – FPL’s version of the Magnificent 7. Those 5 were Salah, Mbeumo, Isak, Palmer and Wood – although even here there are trends to be studied and responded to. Palmer and, to a lesser extent, Wood saw a drop-off in form at the end of the season, something that was mirrored in their ownership.
There’s a further nuance still: Palmer’s data has always been excellent, suggesting that even when he has been misfiring in front of goal, a haul was just around the corner. Wood, on the other hand, has consistently outperformed his underlying data, delivering 198 points so far on under 12 xG, whereas Isak at Newcastle has gained just 11 points more from almost double the xG. It should not, perhaps, have been a surprise when Wood’s points began to revert to the mean predicted by the data.
Alongside these premium assets, managers needed to correctly identify lower-priced players capable of outsized returns. Looking at assets in newly-promoted teams or players who are new to the league can be sensible here.
Finally, let’s consider differentials – players overlooked by the majority but capable of delivering significant “alpha” – returns above that of the market. There are broad “template” teams that emerge over the course of a season – those that break relatively little from the generic mould, shaped by the proliferation of podcasts and blogs nudging people towards the same conclusions. Differential picks are those that break from this mould, delivering performance that is doubly valuable because of its lack of correlation with the majority of other teams. These players offered managers the best opportunity to gain ground rapidly. Captaining Kevin Schade during a rare double-digit performance week, while most managers defaulted to Salah, provided precisely this kind of FPL alpha – truly orthogonal returns that can propel you up the league.
Applying the insights of the market to FPL strategy, we might suggest the following five rules to guide your approach to the 25/26 season:
1. Understand the Premium “Valuation Gap” Assess the differential between expected returns and the premium you’re paying. Salah’s extraordinary season justifies his cost, but players like Haaland and Son represented premium valuations detached from underlying productivity. Just as sophisticated investors carefully evaluate multiples against earnings potential, FPL managers should ask whether premium price tags reflect true promise or merely reputation. Where, conversely, are their opportunities to access overlooked opportunities that will rise in value over time?
2. Target Structural Opportunities – Not Just Individual Talent Look beyond individual skill and toward structural shifts that significantly alter player potential. Bryan Mbeumo’s exceptional season wasn’t merely a story of personal form but a consequence of structural opportunities (penalty duties, increased team reliance following Ivan Toney’s move to Saudi). Similarly, Chris Wood thrived because Nottingham Forest’s attacking play consistently funnelled opportunities through him. In financial markets, returns often result from underlying economic or structural shifts rather than idiosyncratic brilliance; identifying these dynamics in FPL can yield outsized returns.
3. Regcognise Your Behavioural Blind Spots – And Use Systematic Strategies to Circumvent Them We all carry biases – home bias, emotional attachments, impulsive dislikes, reluctance to cut our losses. Develop clear, systematic strategies and use data-driven frameworks to circumvent these bugs in the system.
4. Embrace ‘Correlation Clusters’ for Maximum Returns Just as portfolio managers analyse correlations between assets, effective FPL managers should think in terms of correlated player performances. Investing in correlated clusters – multiple attacking assets from teams experiencing offensive improvement – can amplify returns during periods of favourable fixtures. For instance, owning both Isak and Jacob Murphy, or doubling down on Brentford assets like Mbeumo and Wissa during high-scoring runs, leverages correlated upside potential in favourable market conditions.
5. Treat Defenders and Goalkeepers as Your Defensive Portfolio Allocation Just as a prudent investor allocates a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets – bonds or defensive equities offering stable, predictable returns – savvy FPL managers recognise defenders and keepers as providing steady, baseline points through clean sheets and saves. While these positions rarely deliver explosive hauls, the most sophisticated approach targets players combining reliability with occasional upside, notably attacking full-backs such as Muñoz, Kerkez, or Aït-Nouri, or central defenders like Milenkovic and (until he was injured) Gabriel, whose goal threat at set pieces enhances their value beyond mere defensive solidity.
Finally, if you’re chasing in a mini-league and want a differential for the final gameweek, how about Evanilson, Neto or Asensio… or even Cole Palmer, whom I’m backing to finally live up to his underlying data.
Good luck!
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