Charlie Kirk’s assassination has shaken the conservative movement—and it may be reshaping President Donald Trump’s political standing.
In the days since the 31-year-old activist was fatally shot on the campus of Utah Valley University on September 10, Trump’s approval ratings have swung wildly across major polls. Some surveys suggest a brief surge of support, while others show a dramatic erosion of his standing with the broader public.
Why It Matters
Kirk’s death has provoked strong reaction online, with some prominent MAGA figures blaming the “radical left” for his death and even calling for “war,” while some critics of the conservative activist and his views have celebrated his death.
His shooting, and the reaction from some social media users, demonstrates just how divided American politics has become.
What To Know
Data from RMG Research shows Trump’s approval rating ticking up slightly, from +2 points on September 3 to +4 points by September 17.
Polling by Atlas Intel also showed Trump’s approval rating creeping up, from -11 points in mid-July, to -5 points by September 16.
Other polls, however, tell a different story. The latest AP-NORC survey, conducted between September 11-15, shows that Trump’s approval rating dropped to -21 points, down from -8 points at the end of August
YouGov/Economist polling also found worsening numbers, with Trump’s approval rating declining from -13 to -18 points in the space of a week. In both cases, the president’s rating hit an all-time low for his second term.
Meanwhile, Newsweek’s tracker showed a smaller but consistent dip, with Trump slipping from -8 to -10 points between September 10 and September 22.
Nonetheless, polls show that Trump’s support among Republicans has remained firm, suggesting that GOP voters have rallied around him in the aftermath of Kirk’s death, a figure who was both a close ally of the president and a central voice in the conservative movement.
The Atlas Intel poll shows that Trump’s support among Republicans has remained at 92 percent. While the YouGov/Economist poll found that his approval rating among Republicans has jumped from 84 to 88 percent since Kirk’s death.
Republicans have responded with near-uniform outrage and grief to the assassination of Kirk, describing his killing as both a personal tragedy and a political turning point.
Trump was among the first to speak out, calling Kirk’s death a “dark moment for America” and praising him as “a tremendous person” who devoted his life to the conservative cause.
Within days, he ordered flags to be flown at half-staff and announced that Kirk would receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom posthumously. At a memorial service in Arizona, Trump elevated Kirk as a “martyr for American freedom” and placed blame on the “radical left” for creating what he described as the climate of hostility that led to the shooting.
Other Republican lawmakers struck similar notes. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senator Mike Lee both praised Kirk’s influence on the conservative movement and condemned the violence that ended his life, calling the assassination a reminder of America’s increasingly dangerous political climate.
Vice President JD Vance also echoed Trump’s framing, urging supporters to treat the killing not just as an act of violence, but as part of a broader cultural battle, warning that those who mocked Kirk’s death online were contributing to the same climate the president condemned.
But polling shows that Republicans are increasingly concerned about the direction of the country following Kirk’s death.
In June, 29 percent of Republicans said the country was heading in the wrong direction, according to AP-NORC. That number is now 51 percent.
Republicans interviewed for the survey said fears of political violence and growing unease over social unrest contributed to the shift in their outlook, following a summer marked by high-profile killings on both sides of the political divide, including Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman, a Democrat.
“I’ve spent a lot of time worrying about the worsening political discourse and, now, the disturbing assassinations,” Chris Bahr, a 42-year-old Republican from suburban Houston, told The Associated Press.
“If you’d have talked to me two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have brought it up as a main concern, but more of a gnawing feeling,” he added. “It’s something I’ve been thinking about. But now it’s violence, while before it was just this sense of animosity and division.”
The share of Republicans who believe the country is on the right track has fallen more sharply than it did after Trump lost his reelection bid in late 2020. The scale of the drop is closer to the collapse in confidence seen during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The shift is especially stark among Republicans under 45: according to the AP-NORC poll, 61 percent now say the nation is headed in the wrong direction—a jump of 30 percentage points since June, when the question was last asked.
Amid the reaction to Kirk’s death, some Republicans have called for an end to political division and violence, including Utah Governor Spencer Cox. “Our nation is broken,” he said, insisting that “all of us will try to find a way to stop hating our fellow Americans.”
What Happens Next
Law enforcement officials have said the investigation into Kirk’s assassination is ongoing.
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