Freeport-McMoRan is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025.
The company has $47 Bil in current market capitalization. Over the last twelve months, revenue was $25 Bil, with operating profits of $6.9 Bil and net income of $1.9 Bil. For investors seeking upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative — it has outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since inception.
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Freeport-McMoRan’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key observations for one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- Across the past five years, there are 20 recorded earnings data points, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns — translating to positive returns approximately 55% of the time.
- Notably, this figure rises to 64% when focusing on the most recent three years rather than five.
- The median of the 11 positive returns is 3.6%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is −3.0%.
Additional 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns data and statistics are summarized in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy is to analyze the correlation between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the strongest pair, and trade accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns correlate most strongly, a trader could go “long” for five days following a positive 1D return. The table below shows correlation data over five-year and three-year periods, with 1D_5D indicating the correlation between one-day returns and subsequent five-day returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Peer performance can sometimes influence a stock’s post-earnings reaction, and pricing may begin before the announcement. Below is historical data comparing Freeport-McMoRan’s one-day post-earnings returns with those of peers who reported just before Freeport-McMoRan. Peer returns shown are also one-day (1D) post-earnings figures.
Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, Russell 2000) and delivered strong investor returns. Alternatively, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Freeport-McMoRan, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and recorded returns above 91% since inception.
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