Iran has no path to produce weapons-grade uranium in any of its known centrifuge plants “for the first time in 15 years” after President Trump ordered strikes on them in June, top nuclear weapons experts concluded.
However, those experts cautioned that it is difficult to estimate a breakout time for Iran to get a nuke due to uncertainty over how many centrifuges are left impacted by Operation Midnight Hammer and the availability of enriched uranium stocks.
David Albright, a prominent nuclear weapons expert, led a team of researchers that analyzed data on Iran’s nuclear capabilities from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a global nuclear watchdog.
“For the first time in over 15 years, no breakout estimate to weapon-grade uranium (WGU) is included in our reporting on the IAEA reports,” the report said. “Iran has no identifiable route to produce weapon-grade uranium in its centrifuge plants.”
“Calculating a breakout time would require unsubstantiated speculation about the existence and operability of centrifuges that were not destroyed in the war, such as centrifuges already made but not yet deployed, as well as about the availability of enriched uranium stocks.”
Albright’s analysis was conducted for the Institute for Science and International Security, an organization he founded in the 1990s to assess IAEA reports. Albright is a former IAEA nuclear inspector.
Shortly after Israel launched its 12-day war against Iran to take out its nuclear weapons program, President Trump had ordered Operation Midnight Hammer to drop 14 Guided Bomb Unit Massive Ordnance Penetrator on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The use of the heavy-duty bunker buster bombs was intended to take out Tehran’s facilities, particularly the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, which was believed to be out of Israel’s reach to destroy.
Shortly after the attack, Trump, 79, quickly proclaimed that Operation Midnight Hammer rendered Iran’s nuclear program “completely and totally obliterated,” but skeptics raised concerns about jumping to conclusions before a final damage assessment was finished.
The Institute’s analysis determined that the “attacks caused immense destruction to Iran’s ability to make the nuclear weapon itself.” It also stressed that there “are no indications that Iran moved stocks outside of these three sites” that were bombed.
“The military attacks destroyed or made inoperative all of Iran’s installed centrifuges—almost 22,000 gas centrifuges—at Iran’s three enrichment sites,” the analysis said.
“They destroyed Iran’s ability to make gas centrifuges, severely degraded its capabilities to research and develop them, and destroyed Iran’s ability to make uranium hexafluoride. In essence, the attacks destroyed Iran’s gas centrifuge enrichment program.”
Days after Operation Midnight Hammer, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered his country to cease cooperation with the IAEA.
Due to that shunning of the IAEA, the Institute briefly noted that the nuclear watchdog “has little to no information about Iran’s nuclear material stockpiles or nuclear sites since the 12-day war broke out.
As a result, Albright’s team turned to other publicly available information for its assessment.
Trump administration officials cheered the assessment as vindication of the president’s triumphant claims about obliterating Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
“Your friendly reminder that Iran’s nuclear capabilities are OBLITERATED!” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in response to the Institute’s conclusion.
Read the full article here
