IRS CEO Frank Bisignano predicted that Americans are going to receive the largest tax refunds “ever seen” in 2026.
Newsweek reached out to the IRS for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Officials of President Donald Trump’s administration have said the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) signed into law in July would lead to Americans receiving higher tax refunds in the new year. The potentially high refund would provide Americans extra income early next year, as many remain concerned about the state of the economy and cost of living. Critics, however, have warned that Trump’s signature policy would add to the national debt and disproportionately benefit Americans who are already wealthy.
What To Know
Bisignano made the prediction during an interview on Fox Business’ Mornings With Maria this week as administration officials have raised expectations about what Americans are going to receive during their tax refunds early next year.
“You’re going to look at probably 94 percent-plus of middle-class Americans getting a boost. You’ll get tax rates going down and getting the benefit going forward. You’ll see all our Social Security recipients getting up to a $6,000 benefit as [Trump] committed to the benefits of Social Security not being taxed,” he said. “It will be the biggest refunds that we’ve ever seen.”
His comments come weeks after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Americans can expect to receive an additional $1,000 in their tax refunds in 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Americans could receive “very large refunds” due to the president’s tax cuts.
The cost of living has become a sticking point for the Trump administration, as polling finds that many Americans remain concerned about affordability. The latest poll from YouGov found that 55 percent of Americans disapprove and 38 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. It surveyed 1,592 adults from December 20 to December 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
A recent report from the Tax Foundation found that various provisions in OBBBA could lead to higher refunds. The study estimated the average tax refund in 2026 would be around $3,800, up from $3,052 in 2025.
“Refunds will undoubtedly rise for millions of taxpayers under the OBBBA, reflecting the law’s reduction in individual tax burdens, but simply putting more cash into people’s pockets is not why the tax law is expected to boost long-run economic growth,” the report reads.
Critics have argued that the bill would have other negative impacts on the economy. A report from the Democratic-aligned Center for American Progress in July said the bill would increase health care costs for some Americans. Its impact on the national deficit has also drawn rebuke. The Bipartisan Policy Center reported the bill would increase deficits by at least $3.4 trillion.
What People Are Saying
Bessent, to NBC10 Philadelphia in early December: “The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter. I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household. Then they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages.”
The Tax Foundation report written by Erica York reads: “When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, many will see larger refunds than in recent years. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $144 billion. But because the IRS did not adjust withholding tables after the law passed, workers generally continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the new law required.”
What Happens Next
The deadline to file taxes next year is April 15. The IRS says Americans can begin gathering and organizing tax records including their bank account information, W-2 forms, 1099 forms and records of digital asset transactions to prepare for tax season next year.
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