Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill has suffered a new setback in polling ahead of the November election.
On June 10, Sherrill, a U.S. representative, and Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican former state assemblyman, emerged as their parties’ nominees for the Garden State’s election following their party’s respective primaries.
Despite enjoying strong polling earlier in the race, according to polling by Quantus Insights, the Democrat’s lead over her Republican rival has now declined from +10 percentage points earlier in September to +2 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to Sherrill and Ciattarelli via email for comment outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
Along with Virginia, New Jersey is one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year. The candidates are vying to replace Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is reaching the end of his term limit.
While Republicans have not won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey since 2013 and have voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988, the GOP has seen success in the state in recent years. President Donald Trump increased his vote share by 10 points in 2024. This was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades.
If Republicans win this race, it could serve as a warning sign for Democrats ahead of the November 2026 midterms.
What To Know
The Quantus poll of 900 likely voters, conducted between September 29 and 30, found that 48 percent of respondents said they would support Sherrill while 46 percent said they would back Ciattarelli. This represents an 8 percentage point decline from Quantus’ previous survey.
That poll of 600 likely voters, conducted between September 2 and 4, found that 47 percent supported Sherrill and 37 percent supported Ciattarelli.
Quantus Insights said in a blog post about the results that the shift was coming from independent voters. Ciattarelli leads this group by 13 percentage points.
The pollsters also noted that Sherrill was underperforming among Black voters compared to other Democratic candidates in previous elections. Sixty-one percent of this demographic indicated that they would support her, while 15 percent remained undecided.
Previous polls suggested Sherrill was commanding the support of the electorate. A SurveyUSA poll, released the day after Ciattarelli and Sherrill secured their respective nominations on Wednesday, showed the Democrat leading her GOP rival by 13 percentage points.
However, support for Sherrill has declined since then. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey, conducted on September 22 and 23, among 935 likely voters, found both candidates with 43 percent support, 11 percent undecided, and a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the new poll comes after largely unredacted military records about Sherill’s time in the Naval Academy were released by the National Archives, which included disciplinary information and reportedly revealed that Sherrill was barred from walking at her 1994 U.S. Naval Academy graduation for declining to inform on classmates involved in a cheating scandal.
What People Are Saying
Webster University adjunct professor William Hall told Newsweek: “The hotly contested and extremely close race currently taking place for governor, in the historically solidly Blue state of New Jersey, between Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic candidate, Mikie Sherrill, has generated a significant amount of attention, nationally, particularly given the fact that only two governorships are currently up for reelection in the nation at this time.
“The most recent trend in polling for this race, indicating slight gains for Republican candidate Ciattarelli, although he still remains slightly behind Democratic candidate Sherrill, may also reflect more about the increasing amount of negative attention that has been directed at Sherrill, due to alleged personal difficulties she previously may have experienced while a student at the U.S. Naval Academy in 1994.
“However, notwithstanding these allegations, it is still my sense that, despite these allegations and the fact that, both candidates are in currently in almost a virtual tie in the race, eventually, the polls will reflect a surge toward significant gains for Democratic candidate Sherrill, largely due to the fact that her policy positions and focus for New Jersey, would appear to ultimately be, far more palatable and in line with vast the majority of voters in this historically Blue State.”
In a release about their polling, Quantus said: “This is movement more so than drift. And it’s happening in a state where Democrats typically have the structural upper hand.” They added: “Sherrill steal leads. But her support is flatter than it looks, especially among Black voters, where 15 percent are still undecided, and among independents, where she trails by 13 points.”
What Happens Next
The New Jersey gubernatorial election takes place on November 4.
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