Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Best Bets: Joey Chestnut Returns!

After a one-year absence, the biggest name in professional eating is back in the fold for the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on the Fourth of July.

Yes, the Men’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest will once again be a showcase of Joey Chestnut’s dominance. According to oddsmakers, Chestnut vs. everyone else fails to do this “competition” justice.

The rules of this contest, which is governed by Major League Eating (yes, that’s a real governing body) are simple: competitors have 10 minutes to eat as many hot dogs as possible — buns included, of course.

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Chestnut is not the only dominant force in hot dog eating, though.

On the women’s side, Miki Sudo is an eight-time winner of this competition. She erased 51 (!) hot dogs a year ago — just seven fewer than 2024 men’s champ Patrick Bertoletti.

Oddsmakers see the women’s competition as even more lopsided than the men’s. In fact, women’s outrights are not available after Sudo’s 2024 total of 51 exceeded second-place finisher Mayoi Ebihara (37) by two touchdowns 14 hot dogs.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting FAQ

If you’re new to watching and/or betting on this annual 4th of July spectacle, you’ve come to the right place.

Can You Bet On Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Next question!

(If we haven’t given this away already, yes, you sure can).

How Can I Watch Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

• TV: ESPN2/ESPN3
• Start time (live): Women’s at 10:45 a.m. ET (ESPN3); Men’s at 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

ESPN will also offer a Miki Sudo cam on ESPN3 (11 a.m.) and a Chestnut cam on ESPN3 (12:30). The main event will also air again at 5 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET.

Where Can I Bet On Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

If there’s a sports betting app in your state, chances are, it indeed features various markets on this event.

We can confirm that DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365, BetMGM, Caesars and ESPN BET all offer a range of markets, including the following:

• outrights (winners) — men’s and women’s
• men’s outright — winner without Joey Chestnut
• men’s outright exact order — 1st/2nd/3rd
• Joey Chestnut/Miki Sudo combined total hot dogs eaten
• over/unders for how many ‘dogs a given participant will eat

Has Joey Chestnut Ever Lost The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Yes, but only once.

Dating back to his first victory back in 2007, Chestnut has only come up short once in 16 tries (he missed the competition in 2024 due to a sponsorship conflict related to his deal with Impossible Foods).

In 2015, Matt Stonie topped Chestnut, 62 to 60, in the only Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest loss of “Jaws'” career.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds

Below are the odds in the top markets for tomorrow’s festivities.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Men’s Outright Odds (feat. Joey Chestnut)

The fact that there are two separate men’s outrights markets (one with Chestnut as an option, and one without) at most sportsbooks is a remarkable — but also understandable — testament to gaping chasm between 41-year-old Chestnut and the competition.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Men’s Outright Odds (WITHOUT Chestnut)

With Chestnut off the board, this market essentially allows you to bet on who will finish second.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Joey Chestnut Over/Under Odds

One of the most popular markets every year is the over/under on Chestnut’s total. Below are where how the top sportbsooks have set the over/under for Chestnut tomorrow:

• DK: 71.5 (o+105; u-135)
• FD: 71.5 (o-112; u-112)
• BetMGM: 71.5 (o-120; u-105)
• bet365: 71.5 (o+100; u-140)
• ESPN BET: 71.5 (o-115; u-115)

For context, here’s how Chestnut did the last five times he participated in this event:

• 2023: 62
• 2022: 63
• 2021: 76 (Nathan’s Hot Dog record)*
• 2020: 75
• 2019: 71

*The world record of 83 was set by Chestnut during a Netflix event on Labor Day of 2024.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Miki Sudo Over/Under Odds

Most sportsbooks just offer the over/under for Sudo (instead of outrights for her and the other women’s competitors) following her dominant showing in 2024.

As of Wednesday afternoon, her over/under number was set between 44.5 and 46.5 at DK, BetMGM and Fanduel:

• DK: 46.5 (o-130; u+100)
• FD: 46.5 (o-112; u-112)
• BetMGM: 44.5 (o-125; u-105)

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bets

We’ve got a couple picks we like in an event where a bit of line-shopping opens up some tantalizing possibilities.

First of all, given that Sudo’s total is currently listed at 46.5 at two top sportsbooks, there’s a ton of value in Miki Sudo Over 44.5 Hot Dogs Eatern (-125 at BetMGM). We recommend a 1-unit bet there.

As for Chestnut, no, I don’t recommend betting on him to break his Fourth of July record of 76. But after a one-year hiatus, it shouldn’t shock anyone if he comes close. Considering all of the available odds and prices, Joey Chestnut Over 71.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (+105 at DraftKings) is another solid value play worth entertaining.

Let’s wrap this up by checking out the Men’s Outright Exact Order 1st/2nd/3rd market over at FanDuel, where even the chalkiest outcome offers a substantial payout at longer than 3-to-1 odds.

The “winner” and “winner without Chestnut” markets show that we’re probably looking at a coin flip between James Webb and Geoffrey Esper for third place after likely first- and second-place finishers Chestnut and Bertoletti.

Making two bets in the same market rarely makes sense, but in this case, I recommend doing just that.

If you put a quarter-unit on Exact Order: 1. Chestnut 2. Bertoletti 3. Webb (+350 at FD) and another 0.25u on Exact Order: 1. Chestnut 2. Bertoletti 3. Esper (+460 at FD), there’s a good chance to clean up on a pair of modest wagers.

If 1 unit equals $100 for you and it goes Chestnut-Bertoletti-Webb, your .25-unit bet would net you $37 in profit ($87.50 in winnings minus your $50 in wagers).

And if the order is Chestnut-Bertoletti-Esper, you would come away with a profit of $65.

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