Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter, which you can start receiving in your inbox by subscribing here. Right now, here’s what your free subscription entails:
- College football weekend preview (every Thursday evening)
- NFL weekend preview (every Friday morning at 8 a.m. ET)
- College Football ATS picks (every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET)
- NFL ATS picks (every Sunday morning at 10 a.m. ET)
Below is this morning’s edition, which is available below, to subscribers only.
Good morning!
Let’s start this newsletter with some self-care: it’s time for all of us to steer clear of favorites on Thursday Night Football, isn’t it? (especially in matchups between division rivals).
Last night, the Eagles became the third straight TNF favorite to either lose or need a last-second field goal to survive.
Is Philadelphia’s loss to the Giants as 7-point favorites on the road a sign of another rough weekend for betting favorites?
Remember, after the Rams lost to the Niners on Thursday night to kick off Week 5, the Cardinals and Bills joined L.A. as teams that not only failed to cover — but lose — in games they were favored to win comfortably.
This weekend, teams favored by a touchdown or more include the Broncos (-7.5) over the Jets in London, the Colts (-7) over the Cardinals, the Rams (-7.5) over the Ravens and the Packers (-14) over the Bengals.
Before we go any further, click below for my early picks for every NFL game this week.
What Say You?
I’d love to hear from you, the reader of this email.
So, please
A) Tell me what you think of “What Say You?” as the title for this section and/or
B) Answer the following question: After underdogs showed out in Week 5 in the NFL, we want to know:
Who is your favorite underdog in Week 6? (to either win outright or merely cover)
Please send in your replies by e-mail, and feel free to ask me a question or two of your own — response guaranteed!
The best answers will be showcased here next week.
Early Thoughts On Lions vs. Chiefs
The matchup: Lions at Chiefs (-2.5) — 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Two teams that have been popular preseason Super Bowl picks each of the last two years collide in an excellent Sunday Night Football matchup.
The Lions have been dominant ever since their season-opening loss to Green Bay at Lambeau Field. Detroit has scored at least 34 points in four straight games, including 34 in Week 4 against a Browns defense that is allowing the fewest opposing yards per play (4.4) in the NFL.
Don’t be surprised if Detroit, which lit up Baltimore for 38 points on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago, moves the ball up and down the field on a Chiefs D that is allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas City offense has looked much better the last two weeks than it did in Weeks 1-3. WR Xavier Worthy’s return was expected to offer a spark, but his impact has been bigger than anyone expected.
The Chiefs hung 37 points on Baltimore two weeks ago in Worthy’s first extended action of the season. They also moved the ball well enough to come away with a win over Jacksonville last Monday night, but a pick-six in the red zone proved to be more than they could overcome.
I could see this going either way, as I’m not itching to bet against either of these offenses right now. I’m especially bullish on Patrick Mahomes and the KC passing game against Detroit’s secondary, which is in shambles right now. Terrion Arnold recently became the latest Lions CB to be sidelined after previous injuries to D.J. Reed and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
To me, this game would have the makings of a back-and-forth thriller even if Detroit were healthy in the defensive backfield. So, given all the injuries the Lions are dealing with at corner, and Kansas City’s recent steps forward offensively, my favorite bet in this one is the over.
While 52.5 is a substantial number to target with an over bet, the last time we saw the Lions in primetime vs. a potent offense, Detroit and Baltimore combined for 68 points and well over 700 yards of offense on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
Best bet: Over 52.5 points (best available odds: -110 at DK, FD)
NFL Week 6 Hot Take Of The Week: The AFC Is Wide-Open
I was initially tempted to make the case that neither the Bills nor the Eagles are the rock-solid conference favorites we thought they were one short week ago. But in the case of Philadelphia, oddsmakers are a step or two ahead of me.
After last night’s loss to the Giants, the Eagles were +1200 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings, well behind both the Lions (+650) and the Packers (+800). DK also lists the Lions (+350), Packers (+425) and Eagles (+650) — in that order — as the favorites to win the NFC.
The NFL outrights market looks similar at FanDuel and most other sportsbooks. But whether the Eagles are currently a good buy-low Super Bowl 60 winner bet is not my focus right now.
Instead, I want to talk about the Bills for a second. They remain heavily favored to win the AFC (+225 or shorter at most books), well ahead of the Chiefs (+450 or longer).
I certainly understand why the loss vs. division rival New England at home last Sunday night didn’t trigger an exodus from the Bills bandwagon. Continuing to back Buffalo makes all the more sense given what we’ve seen from the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Bengals and (over the last two weeks) the Chargers.
Buffalo’s loss to the Patriots did, however, strike me as a sign that even though the usual suspects in the AFC have gotten off to slow starts, a number of teams could push Sean McDermott’s squad in the playoffs.
The Buffalo defense continues to look a long way from championship-caliber. That unit will likely continue to struggle until DL Ed Oliver and/or LB Matt Milano return from injury. Offensively, the lack of a proven playmaker at WR could hinder this offense more than we thought it would entering this season.
Given what we’ve seen from the 3-2 Patriots, the 4-1 Colts, the 4-1 Jaguars and the 3-2 Broncos, the Bills could have a much harder time reaching the Super Bowl than oddsmakers expect, even if the perennial heavyweights in the conference continue to struggle.
All that being said, no, I don’t quite love any AFC team’s chances of preventing Buffalo from capturing the No. 1 seed. But is it just me, or are Daniel Jones and the Colts — who are +500 at FanDuel to earn the top seed in the AFC — awfully tempting?
We’re just five weeks into the season, but Indy — which has by far the NFL’s best point differential (+74) through five weeks — is an increasingly intriguing sleeper …
Remember, around this time last year, the Vikings were an “under-the-radar 5-0” — if such a thing ever existed — because so few people bought into Sam Darnold’s resurgence.
Just saying: that team ended up winning 14 games and falling just short of the top seed despite playing in one of the toughest divisions in football.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
Read the full article here
