The Red Sox went into the offseason with a surplus of outfielders, and with about one month remaining before the opening of spring training, Boston still has a surplus of outfielders. With last year’s rookie sensation Roman Anthony certain to take a permanent position in left field, and Gold Glove winners Ceddanne Rafaela in center and Wilyer Abreu in right, the odd man out appears to be five-year veteran and 2024 All-Star Jarren Duran.
And yet, throughout the offseason, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has called the possibility of trading Duran “never likely in my mind.” But according to analyst Jordan Leandre of Just Baseball, there may be a way to change Breslow’s mind. Leandre on Thursday proposed a trade between the Red Sox and the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers that would pair Duran in the Chavez Ravine outfield with new free agent acquisition Kyle Tucker.
The Dodgers would in effect create a super-outfield by pairing Duran with Tucker. While the former Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros four-time All-Star received a historic deal from the Dodgers paying him, before cash deferments, an average of $60 million per year over four seasons, the difference in productivity between Tucker and Duran is not as great as might be assumed.
Tucker has never had a season in which he cracked a 5.0 fWAR. Duran reached 6.8 fWAR in 2024. Over the last three seasons, Tucker’s total fWAR stands at 13.6. But Duran’s three-season fWAR is 13.2. Duran’s wRC+ for his career is 113. That is, Duran has been 13 percent better than a league average hitter. Tucker’s wRC+ is 138 — superior to Duran but probably not quite as superior as could be expected, given that Tucker will make $60 million next season and Duran will earn $7.7 million.
The Red Sox still are looking at going into the season with a gaping hole in the bullpen — no left-hander other than closer Aroldis Chapman. In the Just Baseball trade proposal, the Red Sox take home 25-year-old Justin Wrobleski, who threw five scoreless innings in last year’s World Series, his first and so far only postseason experience.
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“The 25-year-old was elite at missing barrels in 2025, with just a 3.8 percent barrel rate,” Leandre wrote. “He also really took to the bullpen, posting a 3.23 ERA and a 24.6 percent strikeout-to-walk rate in 55.2 relief innings. His fastball sat 96 mph last year with a 35.2 percent whiff rate. His slider was also exceptional.”
The Just Baseball trade idea would also help the Red Sox replenish their farm system after trading away such top prospects as righty starter Hunter Dobbins, power-hitting outfielder Jhostnyxon “The Password” Garcia, and left-hander Brandon Clarke, the organization’s No. 5 prospect as rated by MLB Pipeline.
For Duran, the Red Sox would get back the Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, speedy outfielder Mike Sirota. Los Angeles also sends 22-year-old lefty starter Jackson Ferris, the Dodgers’ second-round draft pick in 2022.
Ferris spent much of last season at the Dodgers’ Double-A Tulsa Drillers, where the product of IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, won 10 games against seven losses with a respectable 3.86 ERA. MLB Pipeline projects Ferris as reaching major league readiness in 2026.
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