Republicans might face a tougher-than-expected fight to hold the U.S. Senate in 2026 if President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains stuck in the low 40s, according to political analyst Henry Olsen.
Trump’s sagging approval rating is emerging as a central vulnerability for Republicans as they head toward the 2026 midterms, with analysts warning that even a modest dip below 45 percent could have outsized consequences in the Senate. With the GOP holding only a razor‑thin majority in the Senate, a handful of competitive or demographically shifting states could determine control of the chamber. If Republicans lose control of the Senate, it makes it harder for Trump to be an effective president in the last two years of his presidency.
On Monday’s The Megyn Kelly Show podcast, Olsen warned that several Senate races, including some in states long considered safely Republican, could shift into genuine contention if Trump fails to rebound politically.
“If the president stays where he is,” Olsen said, “that puts the Senate at risk.”
Olsen’s warning centers on a familiar midterm pattern that when a president sits below roughly 45 percent approval, down‑ballot candidates from the president’s party are often pulled under with him. This referendum on the president is especially felt in competitive or states with shifting demographics.
Olsen noted Trump’s approval hovering around the low 40s nationally, a level he said would drastically complicate Republican efforts to retain control of the upper chamber.
“The House is gone unless Trump undergoes a political resurrection,” Olsen said. “So what we’re really looking at is whether Republicans can hold the Senate.”
Texas
Democrats have long said they’re going to flip Texas blue and have failed, but Olsen warned this could be the year that Senator Ted Cruz is ousted from office, in part because of Trump’s struggles with Hispanic voters.
Hispanic voters now account for roughly one-quarter of the Texas electorate, Olsen noted. While Trump performed far better with Latino voters in 2024 than previous Republican nominees, Olsen said that support has eroded.
“If the Latino vote moves back to where it was in 2018 or 2020,” he said, “Texas suddenly comes into play.”
Olsen noted that Cruz barely won his election in 2018 because of the Latino vote, so if support stays where it was for Trump in 2024, Texas will be safe. But, if it shifts, Cruz could be at risk.
Olsen emphasized that Republicans do not need to lose Hispanic voters outright for trouble to emerge. Even a partial reversion to pre‑2024 voting patterns could narrow margins enough to make a Senate race competitive—particularly if Trump remains unpopular with independents.
Alaska
Alaska, another state Olsen highlighted, presents a different kind of risk. While it traditionally leans Republican, its politics are highly candidate‑driven and sensitive to national mood swings.
“If the president stays where he is on approval,” Olsen said, “Alaska is a worry.”
He argued that Alaska’s unconventional voting dynamics make it especially susceptible to backlash against a nationally unpopular president, even if the GOP nominee is otherwise well‑positioned.
According to an Alaska Survey Research poll, 52.4 percent of respondents backed former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, compared to 47.6 percent who backed GOP Senator Dan Sullivan. The survey of 1,590 adults was conducted between March 19 and 22 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent and 3 percent.
Previously polling also showed Peltola held a lead over Sullivan by a smaller margin, suggesting her chances of winning have increased.
Maine
Olsen also pointed to Maine, where longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins has repeatedly survived by out‑performing her party’s presidential nominees.
But that formula, he said, may no longer work if Trump’s approval remains depressed.
Collins has historically relied on winning a significant share of voters who disapprove of Trump, Olsen explained. But if Trump’s approval stays near 41 percent, those crossover margins may not be mathematically sufficient.
“If [Trump’s] at 41 percent,” Olsen said bluntly, “Susan Collins is going to lose.”
Collins is running for reelection against progressive candidate Graham Platner or Governor Janet Mills. According to the latest Emerson College poll, Platner is up 7 points over Collins in a general election (48 percent to 41 percent), while Mills led Collins by about 3 points (46 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 1,075 likely voters from March 21 to 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
North Carolina
Olsen noted that Trump won North Carolina with the Hispanic vote, but if Hispanic voters shift away from Republicans, Michael Whatley could lose the Senate race to Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper.
While Hispanic voters make up a smaller share of the electorate there than in Texas, Olsen said Republicans’ margins are often thin enough that losing even a slice of that support could prove decisive—especially in a midterm shaped by dissatisfaction with the White House.
A Harper Polling survey showed that Cooper was up 8 over Whatley (points (49 percent to 41 percent) in the swing state. It surveyed 600 likely voters from March 22 to 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Olsen stressed that none of these outcomes are inevitable. A rebound in Trump’s approval—to the mid‑40s or higher—would significantly stabilize the map. But Olsen, who correctly predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2024, and other analysts are warning Republicans that they could lose Senate races they previously thought were safe.
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