Several recent polls, including one made public on Friday, showed a Republican candidate with a lead in California’s gubernatorial primary election, as Democrats in the state face a crowded primary.
Corrin Rankin, California GOP chair, told Newsweek polls are showing Californians are “tired of the decades of failure and corruption by Democrats.”
Newsweek reached out to the California Democratic Party for comment via email.
Why It Matters
California’s unique primary system has fueled concerns in the past for Democrats, who typically dominate the solidly liberal state. California uses a jungle primary system, where all candidates, regardless of political party, run on a single ballot for the primary. The two candidates with the most support advance to the general election.
Currently, two Republicans—Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco—are in the race.
There are five prominent Democrats, including former Representative Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Comptroller Betty Yee, and former Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. Others, including Representative Eric Swalwell and businessman Rick Caruso, have also been floated as potential candidates.
The concern for Democrats would be the high number of candidates running, splitting up the vote, and giving an opportunity for two Republicans to advance to the general election, and that they would be locked out of the governorship in a race they would otherwise be favored in. The latest polls have shown that two of the three leading candidates are Republicans.
What to Know
The latest poll of the race comes from EMC Research and was reported by Punchbowl News after reports that Swalwell could jump into the race. It showed Hilton with 20 percent support, while Porter and Bianco followed at 16 percent and 14 percent. Swalwell polled at 11 percent, while other candidates were in the single digits.
That shows a tight race between Porter and Bianco for the second spot in the general election—something Democrats will be trying to avoid ahead of next year’s primary.
It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 22-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Two other recent polls have illustrated similar dynamics.
A poll conducted by Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin on behalf of Villaraigosa’s campaign. It showed Bianco leading with 20 percent, followed by Villaraigosa at 19 percent and Hilton at 18 percent. It surveyed 919 likely voters in November and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
An Emerson College poll showed Hilton with 16 percent, Porter with 15 percent and Bianco with 11 percent support in the primary. It surveyed 900 likely voters from October 20-21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.19 percentage points.
A University of California, Berkeley poll showed Bianco leading with 13 percent, while Porter followed with 11 percent. Becerra and Hilton both followed with eight percent support. It surveyed 8,141 registered voters from October 20-27. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Porter was viewed as the frontrunner, but has recently faced criticism after threatening to leave an interview after becoming frustrated by a journalist’s follow-up questions. The backlash also saw other allegations of mistreatment resurface amid her campaign.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris was also viewed as a possible candidate but declined to run.
Darry A. Sragow, a Democratic strategist, told Newsweek polls told Newsweek polls this far out “have no relevance.”
“They confirm that the race for governor in California is totally up for grabs because virtually nobody other than political insiders has any idea whatsoever of who these candidates are and what they stand for,” he said. “There are roughly twice as many registered Democrats as registered Republicans in California and consequently there is a strong possibility that the general election battle next November will exclude a Republican.”
It remains to be seen who can raise sufficient money to compete in California and who else may join the field, he said.
Democratic commentator Russell Drew wrote on Friday on X that polling numbers may be concerning for the party.
“Easy to see how the two major Republican candidates for California governor squeeze into the top two with 20% and 19% of the vote, therefore locking Democrats out of November. If you’re a Dem running at 5% or less before the March filing deadline, drop out,” he wrote.
What People Are Saying
Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, wrote to X: “A primary with 8 viable Democratic candidates and only 2 viable Republicans might cause some unpleasant outcomes for Dems… someone might to have to play traffic cop before too long.”
Corrin Rankin, chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Newsweek: “Poll after poll shows Californians are tired of the decades of failure and corruption by Democrats, and they are turning to Republicans for real solutions and leadership on issues like affordability, public safety, and homelessness.”
Rick Gorka, spokesman for Bianco’s campaign, told Newsweek: “Sheriff Chad Bianco has all the momentum behind his campaign for Governor and the last three public polls prove this point. Californians are eager for a new way forward and only a Sheriff can clean up the mess left behind by Newsom and his cronies.”
Josh Pulliam, Villaraigosa campaign strategist, told Newsweek in response to the latest poll: “The last thing California voters are looking for is a third DC politician to enter the governor’s race, but the Villaraigosa campaign certainly welcomes Eric Swalwell’s candidacy with open arms.”
Steve Hilton told Newsweek: “This poll, like every recent poll, shows Californians are fed up. After 15 years of Democrat one-party rule, the state is not working. People are tired of a corrupt system that rewards the powerful and punishes working families. The reason we’re leading the field is simple — voters are desperate for change, and they’re choosing someone with real business and government reform experience who offers a strong, positive alternative for working people with $3.00 gas, lower electric bills, a home they can afford to buy, and their first hundred grand free of state income tax. That is why we are surging, and that is why we will win.”
Porter campaign spokesperson Peter Opitz said in a statement to Newsweek last month: “Katie is the experienced, battle-tested fighter that Californians want as their next Governor. Poll after poll shows Katie leading her Democratic opponents by double digits, driven by grassroots supporters who know that she will stand up to Donald Trump’s attacks on California and bring down costs across the state. Katie remains focused on sharing her message with voters in every part and pocket of California.”
What Happens Next
The primary is set to be held in June. Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies the race as Safe Democratic.
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