Russia’s birth rate has fallen to a historic low, reaching levels not seen since the late 18th to early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.
Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Foreign Ministry for comment by email.
Why It Matters
Russia for decades has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, and this appears to have worsened amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.
It is estimated that Russia’s population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia’s population could almost halve to 83 million, Newsweek previously reported.
What To Know
Russia may be seeing its lowest birth rates since the late 1700s, with early 2025 showing sharp declines—births dropped by 6 to 7 percent in February and by 3 to 4 percent in March, according to Alexey Raksha, a Russian demographer who studies fertility and mortality statistics, as reported by independent news outlet Agentstvo.
In the first quarter of 2025, 293-294,000 births were registered in Russia—2.4 percent lower than the first quarter of last year, he said.
“March 2025 likely recorded the lowest number of births on the territory of today’s Russian Federation since the late 18th to early 19th century,” Raksha wrote on his Telegram channel.
The average number of children per woman stayed nearly the same in the first quarter, decreasing from 1.432 to 1.431, the demographer noted.
Russian authorities have restricted access to abortions and contraception and have even offered pregnant women payouts in a bid to encourage the population to have children. In 2023, Valery Seleznyov, a member of the Russian State Duma, proposed releasing women convicted of minor charges from prisons so they can conceive.
But the plunging figures indicate that Russian authorities’ attempts to boost the birth rate have had almost no effect, Raksha told Agentstvo.
Last July, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said reviving the nation’s birth rate was one of Russia’s “top priorities” as he called the situation “catastrophic.”
What People Are Saying
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in July 2024: “We live in the largest country in the world. And our numbers are decreasing every year. And this can only be dealt with by increasing the average birth rate.”
What Happens Next
Russia’s plunging birth rate could in the long run limit the country’s economic growth and lead to a higher retirement age, Raksha warned.
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