Texas Democrats are voting on Tuesday in a closely watched U.S. Senate primary, as new polling shows state Representative James Talarico holding a commanding lead over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett among younger voters.
Newsweek has contacted the Talarico and Crockett campaigns for comment via email outside regular working hours.
Why It Matters
Despite Texas’ long-standing Republican lean, having backed President Donald Trump by about 14 points in 2024, Democrats believe the Senate seat could still be competitive in November, drawing growing national attention to the primary.
Party strategists are watching closely as Trump’s approval rating softens and Republicans face a crowded, contentious primary, with incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn challenged by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt.
What To Know
A new poll highlights a sharp generational divide between the two prominent Democrats vying for statewide office as voters head to the polls.
The YouGov survey suggests Talarico is running well ahead of Crockett among younger primary voters, even as older Texans remain more closely divided.
From February 26 through March 2, YouGov polled 4,115 likely Texas primary voters.
Respondents were randomly selected from the Texas voter list and contacted by SMS text message, with all interviews conducted online using YouGov’s web-based survey system.
Likely voters were defined as respondents who said they would definitely vote, or who had already voted, in either the Democratic or Republican primary.
The margin of error was about 3 percentage points among likely Democratic primary voters and about 3 points among likely Republican primary voters.
While the broader Democratic primary contest remains competitive, age appears to be a decisive factor.
Younger voters are breaking heavily toward Talarico, giving him a sizable advantage among Texans under 30.
Older voters, by contrast, tilt slightly toward Crockett, underscoring a split that could influence turnout strategies and messaging on primary day.
Talarico leads 60 percent to 28 percent among voters aged 18 to 29, while Crockett narrowly leads among those 65 and older.
The poll also shows sharp demographic and ideological divides within the Democratic primary electorate.
Talarico holds wide leads among white voters, 69 percent to 26 percent, and Hispanic voters, 60 percent to 31 percent, while Crockett dominates among Black voters, leading 84 percent to 7 percent.
Ideologically, Talarico leads among very liberal, liberal and moderate voters, while Crockett performs best among the small share of Democratic primary voters who identify as conservative or very conservative.
Talarico, a state lawmaker who has emphasized economic populism and cross-partisan appeal, has focused much of his campaign on issues such as cost of living, wages and political polarization.
That message appears to be resonating with younger voters, many of whom have expressed frustration with both major parties and traditional political divides.
Crockett, a former state representative, has positioned herself as a candidate of change, arguing that shifting political dynamics and narrowing Republican margins nationally create an opening for Democrats in a traditionally red state.
When Texans Will Choose Their U.S. Senate Nominees
Texas voters are set to head to the polls on March 3 to choose their party nominees for the U.S. Senate race.
If no candidate secures an outright majority of 50 percent or more, the contest will advance to a runoff election scheduled for May 26.
Why the Senate Contest in Texas Carries National Weight
Control of the U.S. Senate remains narrowly divided, with Republicans holding a 53–47 majority. For Democrats, the path to a majority is unusually constrained in the current cycle.
Only two GOP-held seats are widely viewed as realistic flip opportunities. One is in Maine, which backed then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points in the 2024 election. The other is in North Carolina, which supported Donald Trump by 3 points.
At the same time, Democrats are defending seats in states that Trump carried, including Georgia and Michigan.
No other Republican-held seats in states Harris won, or that Trump won by a single-digit margin, are on the ballot.
That reality forces Democrats to look toward more challenging terrain. Republican seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are among those being discussed as potential, if difficult, opportunities to shift the balance of power.
Against that backdrop, even early-stage polling in Texas is drawing national attention, as party leaders weigh how much to invest in long-shot but potentially decisive races.
Who Is Leading the GOP Primary?
A University of Texas poll shows Paxton narrowly leading the Republican primary with 36 percent support, followed closely by Cornyn at 34 percent, while Hunt trails at 26 percent.
Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the U.S. Senate since 2002, has drawn criticism from segments of the Republican base, partly because of his backing of a bipartisan gun‑safety bill in 2022 and past remarks about Trump.
Paxton, by contrast, has consolidated support among more conservative and Trump‑aligned voters, despite ongoing legal controversies and his impeachment by the state House in 2023.
Trump has not endorsed any candidate in the race, leaving the contest unsettled as primary day arrives.
What People Are Saying
YouGov senior data journalist David Montgomery wrote: “Talarico does better among younger voters, with a 60 percent to 28 percent lead among 18- to 29-year-olds, while Crockett leads 50 percent to 46 percent among those 65 and older.”
Democratic U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett previously told Newsweek: “We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it’s going to take to actually be able to flip this seat. Right now, the Republicans have been losing all over this country, and even when they’re not losing, well, those margins are shrinking. But more importantly, I think that our base is hungry for something different.”
State Representative James Talarico, a Democrat, previously told Newsweek: “I started off this campaign by saying I don’t see politics as left versus right, I see it as top versus bottom. And I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. And so I’m trying to bridge those divides. I’m trying to bring people together across party, across race, across religion and gender, to take power back for working people.”
Republican National Committee spokesperson Zach Kraft told Newsweek last week: “Texas is a solidly red state and will continue to be in 2026. Any Democrat suggesting otherwise is selling a pipe dream. The Lone Star State will not break its 32-year Republican streak to elect a radical left-wing nutjob like Jasmine Crockett or a snake oil salesman like James Talarico, whose claim to fame is saying ‘God is nonbinary.'”
What Happens Next
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Central time on Tuesday, according to the Office of the Texas Secretary of State.
Texans are encouraged to check with local election officials for polling place details.
Results are expected to begin coming in after polls close at 7 p.m. local time, with clearer outcomes later in the evening or early on Wednesday.
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