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Joe Mixon Anytime TD (-175) bet365
Usually, when a player’s odds are any shorter than -150, we’d rather look elsewhere, as odds requiring a $175 bet to win $100 are rarely tempting.
But Mixon (-175 ATTD) represents an exception to this rule given his workload so far this season and his remarkable red zone output: eight TDs (seven rushing, one receiving) in just seven games.
The former Cincinnati Bengal has been everything the Texans hoped he would be when they traded for him this offseason. He’s averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry that is even more impressive when you consider that he’s easily leading the NFL in attempts per game with 21.6 (well ahead of second-place Kareem Hunt at 19.9 carries per game).
He is also fifth on the team in both targets and receptions, with an impressive average of 9.9 yards per catch.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry and Eagles RB Saquon Barkley deserve every bit of the hype they’ve gotten this season, but Mixon is quietly playing as well any back in the league besides those two, and he’s doing it behind a struggling O-line.
We like Mixon to score tonight not only because of how well he’s playing, but because of how heavily the Texans are featuring him. With at least 28 combined carries/targets in three of the last four games — and 24 carries or more in each of those four games — there are few players in the league who can match Mixon right now in terms of sheer opportunities.
He’s also facing a Cowboys D that has given up 15 touchdowns in nine games.
Full transparency: We’re yet to cash any 2+ TD bets in this column this season. Mixon has a golden opportunity to break through for us in that category tonight, though.
At longer than +300 at FanDuel, he is worth a sprinkle to find the end zone not once but twice, which is something he’s already accomplished twice this year.
Joe Mixon Anytime TD (-175): 1 unit
Joe Mixon 2+ TDs (+330 at FanDuel): 0.50 units
Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+350) FanDuel
After Mixon, the safest bet on the Texans to score a touchdown in this game is probably Nico Collins, who is poised for a big night in his return from a serious injury.
While it’s hard to argue with Collins, who has three TD receptions in five games this year, we’re going to throw out a longshot for our second ATTD bet of this game.
Houston tight end Dalton Schultz has been heavily involved in this offense this year, but is yet to catch a TD.
We have a feeling that Schultz — who has drawn at least five targets in six of Houston’s first 10 games of the season — is due for a touchdown in this contest after turning 10 catches in the last three weeks into 139 yards, including a 32-yard grab vs. Detroit last Sunday night.
In addition to Schultz’s own strong play of late, we’re bullish on him based on what tight ends have done vs. the Cowboys over the last five games (Dallas was on the bye in Week 7):
- Pat Freiermuth (Week 5): 3 catches, 22 yards, 1 TD
- Sam LaPorta (Week 6): 1 catch, 52 yards, 1 TD
- George Kittle (Week 8): 6 catches, 128 yards, 1 TD
- Kyle Pitts (Week 9): 1 catch, 11 yards, 0 TD
- Dallas Goedert (Week 10): 2 catches, 25 yards, 1 TD
Dallas locked up Pitts two weeks ago, but they’ve given up four touchdown catches to TEs in the last five weeks. That makes Schultz great value at longer than 3-to-1 to score tonight.
Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+350): 0.25 units
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