Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial runoff is tightening as a new polling memo shows businessman Rick Jackson leading Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, despite Jones entering the race as the front-runner with President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
The survey comes several weeks after Jones led the initial primary with about 39 percent of the vote to Jackson’s 33 percent, sending the two candidates to a runoff. The new Cygnal polling memo shows Jackson has erased Jones’ lead and now holds an advantage.
What To Know
A Cygnal polling memo shows the dynamics of Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial runoff shifting, with Jackson gaining support and overtaking Jones after trailing him in the initial primary.
On a first-choice ballot conducted May 28, Jones led Jackson 41 percent to 38 percent. By June 7, however, the race had shifted significantly, with Jackson climbing to 46 percent support while Jones fell to 35 percent.
“Jones has everything moving against him,” the memo says, adding, “the race has gone from +0 to a +12 Jackson lead when accounting for first-ballot undecideds being forced to choose a candidate on a subsequent lean ballot; first-choice has gone from +3 Jones to +11 Jackson (a 14-point swing).”
On the combined ballot, Jones has 44 percent while Jackson has 56 percent. The polling memo said that “Jones has not had a single day where he closed the spread.”
Other recent polling since the runoff has shown a different picture, with a CivicLens Research survey finding Jones with a 10-point lead, 50 percent to Jackson’s 40 percent. About 10 percent of voters were undecided. The poll of 700 Georgia GOP runoff likely voters was conducted from May 29 to June 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A JMC Enterprises poll of 600 likely voters conducted on May 26 and May 27 found Jackson up by 2 percentage points, 45 percent to Jones’ 43 percent. About 12 percent of the participants were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket still favor Jones for the GOP nomination, with Kalshi putting his odds around 58 percent and Polymarket around 61 percent, as of Tuesday evening.
Georgia Gubernatorial Race
Although Georgia backed Trump in 2024, it remains one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds. Democrats currently hold both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control the governor’s office.
Following the runoff, the Republican nominee will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election.
Trump’s endorsement remains a powerful force in Republican primaries. The president has weighed in on dozens of contests this cycle, cementing his role as a key influence in the party’s platform. In recent weeks, Trump-backed candidates defeated Representative Thomas Massie, Senator Bill Cassidy and Senator John Cornyn in GOP primaries, highlighting the political challenges faced by Republicans who break with the president.
Governor Brian Kemp, who is term-limited, broke with Trump after the 2020 election by refusing to support efforts to overturn the state’s voting results, making him a frequent target of Trump at the time. While the two later reconciled and Kemp backed Trump’s 2024 campaign, their temporary fallout highlights Georgia Republicans’ willingness at times to diverge from Trump on key issues.
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