President Donald Trump’s approval rating is sliding toward new lows, with recent polling suggesting his strongest supporters are actually drifting away faster than critics, according to a new analysis.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”
Why It Matters
Trump’s approval numbers are a key indicator of what the electorate is thinking heading into midterms and play a key role in how both parties approach messaging.
Shifts among core supporters could signal deeper political vulnerability for the president.
What To Know
The warning comes from Eli McKown‑Dawson, a senior elections analyst writing for the Silver Bulletin on Nate Silver’s website, who says a wave of recent polls paints a more troubling picture for the president than topline numbers alone suggest.
McKown-Dawson argued that Trump’s approval rating is slipping because some of his most enthusiastic supporters are turning away, while strong opposition continues to grow.
And that dynamic, the political expert argues, leaves his numbers vulnerable to further decline.
Since the last update to Silver Bulletin’s approval tracker, several major national polls have come in with sharply negative results for Trump.
Ipsos/The Washington Post/ABC measured his net approval at minus 21, while CNN/SSRS put it at minus 27.
American Research Group recorded a net approval of minus 26.
Taken together, those results have pushed Trump’s net approval rating in the Silver Bulletin average down to minus 14.9—just a tenth of a point above its lowest level of his second term so far.
McKown‑Dawson notes that while approval ratings often fluctuate, the underlying trend could be concerning for Trump because of where the erosion is happening.
Most Americans, he writes, fall into the categories of either strongly approving or strongly disapproving of Trump’s performance, with relatively few holding softer views.
Since tracking began last May, nearly all of Trump’s decline has come from the “strong” approval side of the ledger.
The share of Americans who strongly approve of his job performance has dropped from 34 percent at the start of his second term to 24 percent today.
Over the same period, the share who strongly disapprove has climbed from 31 percent to 45 percent.
By contrast, McKown‑Dawson says Trump’s “weak” approval and disapproval numbers have remained essentially flat, suggesting the movement is not among undecided or persuadable voters but within the president’s most committed base.
The result, he argues, is a political environment that may be more fragile for Trump than the headline average alone implies, particularly if further erosion among strong supporters continues.
What People Are Saying
McKown-Dawson said: “Most Americans strongly approve or disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while comparatively fewer only somewhat approve or disapprove.
“The share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump has dropped from 34 percent when he was inaugurated to just 24 percent today, while the share who strongly disapprove has risen from 31 percent to 45 percent. In comparison, when you draw lines through Trump’s weak job approval and disapproval numbers, they’re essentially flat.”
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.
“The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
Speaking at a White House event on Monday Trump said: “It just amazes me that there’s not more support out there. We actually have silent support. I think it’s silent. I think that’s how I won.”
What Happens Next
Attention will now turn to whether upcoming polls confirm the same pattern of erosion among Trump’s strongest supporters, particularly as the administration faces fresh political tests at home and abroad in the months ahead.
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