Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer’s chances of winning the California gubernatorial race have increased in recent weeks, according to betting odds.
California, the nation’s most populous state, is reliably Democratic. It backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 points last November and hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger served between 2003 and 2011.
But the race was upended when former Representative Eric Swalwell, one of the front-runners in the open primary to replace term-limited Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom, left the race on April 12 after sexual assault allegations surfaced. Swalwell has denied the allegations. His would-be voters will now have to choose another candidate to support, and this may risk splintering the Democratic field and boosting the Republican Party’s chances of success.
The state uses a jungle primary system, in which all candidates, regardless of party, run on a single ballot. The two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.
According to Polymarket, Steyer has a 41 percent chance of winning the race, up from 36 percent on April 21, the day before the debate. However, his odds are down from their 68 percent peak on April 15, three days after Swalwell exited the race.
Newsweek reached out to Steyer’s campaign via email for comment.
Who Are The Candidates?
At least 10 people are running in a crowded field, but the six leading candidates participated in a televised debate on Wednesday. The two leading Republicans in the race are conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. The four Democrats, along with Steyer, are former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Biden administration Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
Steyer’s odds come after a statewide survey released in early April showed him polling at 14 percent among California voters. This was conducted before Swalwell exited the race. His lead comes as he has been vastly outspending his rivals in advertising. But he has been criticized over his wealth and previous business dealings.
“I’m the billionaire who wants to tax other billionaires,” Steyer said during the debate. “I’m the billionaire who’s taking on the electric monopoly and trying to break up their power. I’m the billionaire who wants to tax the oil companies and make polluters pay.”
After Steyer, Becerra carries 28 percent odds, and Mahon is third at 9 percent. Bianco and Porter are joint fourth—both candidates have a 7 percent chance of electoral success, and Hilton is fifth, with 6 percent odds.
Why Did Swalwell Exit the Race?
Swalwell resigned after the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a former staffer alleged that the congressman sexually assaulted her in 2019, when she worked for him, and again in 2024 at a charity gala. CNN reported that three additional women accused Swalwell of misconduct, including unsolicited explicit messages and inappropriate physical contact.
A fifth woman, Lonna Drewes, accused Swalwell of drugging and raping her during a 2018 encounter in Los Angeles. Swalwell, 45, who denied the previous allegations, declined to comment on the latest allegation when reached via phone. “I have no comment on anything—period—and I’m going to hang up now,” he previously told Newsweek.
Betty Yee, a former state controller, also announced this week will be suspending her campaign over fundraising concerns. She was vying to be the first woman to hold the state’s highest office.
“It was becoming clear that the donors were not going to be there. Even some of my former supporters just felt like they needed to move on,” Yee said in an online news conference.
When Is the Election?
California’s primary is scheduled for June 2026. The gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026.
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