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The easiest part to predict is how it will end. “Long live Europe” is the line Ursula von der Leyen has used to close all her State of the Union speeches and major addresses to the European Parliament — with one notable exception: the Italian “Viva l’Europa” she chose for her 2021 speech, delivered in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. The real question is what she will say before reaching that familiar sign-off. The State of the Union speech is one of Brussels’ best-kept secrets, and its final version can be tweaked right up until the very last moment.…

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