SHENZHEN MAY BE THE HARDER TEST, EXPERTS SAY
Observers said the more politically sensitive challenge could come later this year at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Shenzhen.
Unlike the trade ministers’ meeting held in Suzhou, the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting carries greater political weight, they add – bringing together heads of government and special envoys, with summit choreography and even seating arrangements often closely scrutinised.
Shenzhen will host the high-stakes meeting in November.
Tang described the Suzhou meeting as “a green light for the road, not for the destination”.
Arrangements involving Taiwan’s participation in Suzhou proceeded smoothly under the “Chinese Taipei” framework, he said, but the leaders’ summit in November is “structurally different” in one critical way: the envoy.
“Beijing has already stated publicly that Taiwan’s participation at the leaders’ summit in Shenzhen will depend on adherence to the one-China principle – a condition that goes beyond what the APEC memorandum of understanding technically requires,” Tang said.
“At the ministerial level, Yang is a technical trade official whose credentials are hard to object to. But at the leaders’ level, Taipei must nominate a special envoy, and that person’s political profile becomes the variable Beijing can manipulate.”
Tang said finding a similar candidate for Shenzhen could prove increasingly difficult, pointing to Beijing’s handling of Taiwan’s representatives at past APEC summits held in China.
During the 2001 Shanghai summit under then-Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian, Beijing rejected Taiwan’s proposed envoy, former vice president Li Yuan-zu. Taipei later boycotted the leaders’ meeting altogether.
During former Taiwanese leader Ma Ying-jeou’s term from 2008 to 2016, vice presidents represented Taiwan at APEC summits.
At the 2014 Beijing summit, then-vice president Vincent Siew attended and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during what was widely viewed as a more stable period in cross-strait ties.
But under Tsai’s leadership between 2016 and 2024 years, rising tensions led Taipei to instead send figures such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) founder Morris Chang, whose relatively non-political profile made him more acceptable to Beijing.
Tang said the Morris Chang template, which he describes as globally respected, politically unthreatening, with gravitas that commands sideline meetings, remains the “gold standard, but will no longer be repeatable”.
He identified three likely pressure points later this year: Taiwan’s envoy nomination, summit choreography – including the family photo – and language surrounding Taiwan in any joint declaration.
“The family photograph carries enormous symbolic weight,” Tang said.
“Whether Taiwan’s envoy is physically proximate to Xi, or visibly marginalised, will invite much reading.”
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