Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Senate primary runoff race versus incumbent John Cornyn on Tuesday and The Cook Political Report moved the midterm race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Paxton was declared the winner by the Associated Press at 9 p.m. ET. As of 10:28 p.m., he had 63.8 percent of the vote compared to Cornyn’s 36.2 percent with 69 percent of the vote counted.
President Donald Trump backed Paxton with a late endorsement after going months without backing a candidate following the March primary.
The race advanced to a Republican runoff after neither Cornyn nor Paxton won a majority in March, setting up a nationally watched intraparty contest that could signal the GOP’s direction in a critical Sun Belt state while determining who faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
The president has landed other key primary wins as Republican Senator Bill Cassidy lost his race, as did Republican Congressman Thomas Massie. Trump backed both of their opponents.
What To Know
The Cook Political Report breaks races up into seven categories, from “solid Republican” to “solid Democrat.” The Texas Senate race was in the “likely Republican” category, one position away from “solid Republican.” The move to “lean Republican” pushes the race closer to a “toss-up.”
Jessica Taylor, U.S. Senate and governors editor, wrote in the report: “With state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s win in Tuesday’s Texas Senate runoff, national Republicans now have a candidate they’ve long assailed as the weaker general election nominee compared to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
“We agree with that assessment, and now that Republicans are saddled with a controversial candidate who’s been a weak fundraiser, we are shifting our rating from Likely to Lean Republican.”
The report goes on to note Paxton’s controversies including his wife divorcing him on “biblical grounds.” “Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column,” the report says.
Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek in part following the move on Tuesday night that, “Again, our primary system makes it possible for candidates to win even though they can be widely seen as the weaker general election candidate. Cook is also looking at factors like fundraising performance and political baggage as well as issue stands in downgrading the Republican chances of retaining the seat. I still see Paxton as beating Tallarico [sic], even though Tallarico [sic] was the better general election candidate, in comparison with [Jasmine] Crockett.”
Following the election win, Paxton took to X, saying, “Thank you, Texas. Together, we just made history. Now, we must unite to defeat the most well-funded, radical Democrat in America. Join my team and donate to get in the fight: http://KenPaxton.com”
Talarico also took to X: “Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America. He embodies the broken system we’re running against. It’s time to come together: The People vs. Ken Paxton.”
Democrats are attempting to retake the House and Senate in the upcoming November midterms, and the GOP holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats would need to pick up four seats to win control or three seats to tie, although Vice President JD Vance would serve as a tiebreaker.
“Though some polling shows the general election close or even tied, we don’t give Talarico an even chance just yet, though the contest could eventually shift into the Toss Up category. Getting to 50% is still hard for a Democrat in Texas, and recent surveys have shown Talarico hovering in the mid-40s. Even with a nominee as flawed as Paxton, this is still a state that Trump won two years ago by almost 14 points, though in 2020 he carried it by less than six,” the Cook report later adds in part.
What Polls Show
Polls have repeatedly shown a competitive race for the Lone Star State’s Senate seat.
A new Texas Southern University/YouGov poll echoes that sentiment. In the poll, Paxton and Talarico are tied with 45 percent and Libertarian Ted Brown has 2 percent. Eight percent are undecided. The poll was conducted from April 22 to May 6 among 1,223 likely voters, with a 2.8 percent margin of error.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed Talarico besting Paxton in a head-to-head race. He leads Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percent and was conducted from April 17 to April 20 among 1,018 likely voters.
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