After winning the 2025 NBA Finals as one of the youngest championship-winning teams in league history, the Thunder are unsurprisingly heavily favored to win it all, again, in 2026.
With a 26-year-old MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and two stars that are 24 years old or younger (Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren), it would be an understatement to say that the Thunder aren’t going anywhere.
Depending on what they do with picks No. 15, 24, and 44 in the 2025 NBA Draft tonight, the Thunder could have at least three promising rookies in their rotation in 2025-26 (the No. 12 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, 6-foot-6 G Nikola Topic, missed this past season due to injury).
2026 NBA Finals Futures Odds
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| Thunder | +225 | +220 | +220 |
| Rockets | +750 | +850 | +800 |
| Cavaliers | +850 | +800 | +800 |
| Knicks | +850 | +900 | +900 |
| Timberwolves | +1300 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Lakers | +1400 | +1500 | +1400 |
| Nuggets | +1500 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Celtics | +2000 | +1700 | +1600 |
| Warriors | +2000 | +2900 | +2200 |
| Magic | +2000 | +1200 | +1400 |
Can Anyone Unseat The Thunder?
Recent NBA history tells us that it’s almost impossible to win back-to-back titles. The last team to repeat as champs was Golden State (2017 and 2018).
In both 2023 and 2024, when the Nuggets and Celtics won the title in dominant fashion, those looked poised to repeat. Neither made the Finals the following season, though.
OKC, however, looks like a different story. For one thing, there’s a good chance that injuries will be less of a factor in the 2025-26 regular season than they were in 2024-25.
Remember, this year’s Thunder played more than half of the regular season without Chet Holmgren due to an early-season hip injury that limited him to 32 regular-season appearances.
OKC was also without center Isaiah Hartenstein for 25 games, and Alex Caruso missed 28 games in the regular season.
In 2025-26, the Thunder will have enough depth to win 70 regular-season games or more if healthy.
OKC will be lucky to be as injury-free next postseason as it was over the last couple months, though. The top nine players in the Thunder rotation all played in at least 21 of their 23 playoff games this year.
’26 NBA Finals Best Longshot Bets: ORL, DEN
For all the reasons outlined above — not to mention the scary possibility that MVP SGA, All-Star Jalen Williams and likely NBA All-Defense contender Holmgren could all be even better with another year of experience — there are no Western Conference teams I’d be in a hurry to back to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy next June.
That being said, if we have to give out one longshot from each conference based on what we know at the moment, Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets (best odds as of June 25: +1600 at FD, bet365) would be my pick. Denver has some key decisions to make this summer around Jokic, but it did take OKC to seven games in this year’s Western Conference Semifinals despite dealing with a number of injuries.
Orlando A Contender Following Desmond Bane Trade?
The East looks wide-open, though. Three of the top teams in the conference this year (Boston, Indiana and Milwaukee) will be without at least one massive piece after Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard all tore their Achilles during the 2025 playoffs.
Boston has already dealt away Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. And the Celtics may not be done offloading high-earning players, as they appear intent on drastically cutting costs between now and Tatum’s return to action in 2026-27.
With the Knicks yet to hire a replacement for coach Tom Thibodeau, the most intriguing team in this conference is the Magic. Orlando made the first blockbuster trade of the summer during the Finals, when it acquired Desmond Bane from the Grizzlies.
Bane has never been an All-Star, but he profiles as a great fit with the Magic, which suffered from a lack of outside shooting this season. He is a career 41 percent 3-point shooter on 6.3 3PA per game.
Bane’s also a quality defender who will make the Magic — who finished the 2024-25 regular season with the second-best defensive rating — that much more difficult to score on.
Orlando finished just seventh in the East in 2024-25 as starters Paolo Banchero (46 regular-season games played in 2024-25), Franz Wagner (60 games) and Jalen Suggs (35 games) all missed at least 20 regular-season games.
But assuming this team stays healthy next year (or at least healthier) and Bane fits as seamlessly as expected, the Magic could absolutely contend for — if not win — the East.
Oddsmakers agree, as both FanDuel and bet365 list Orlando as +450 or shorter to win the Eastern Conference next season, behind only the Cavs and Knicks.
Obviously, a ton would have to go right for the Magic to take this kind of a leap, but there’s not a more tempting 2026 NBA Finals longshot bet at the moment than Banchero and Co. at 20-to-1 (DK).
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