A wave of fresh polling suggests President Donald Trump is losing independents, failing to energize supporters, and facing growing doubts on key issues as the midterm cycle begins to take shape.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5th, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”
Why It Matters
Presidents often bleed support outside their base once governing realities set in, but sustained losses among independents can quickly reshape the electoral landscape.
With midterms approaching, these trends could prove difficult to reverse.
Approval Rating Implodes With Independents
When Trump returned to office in January 2025, independents were uneasy but not hostile.
An Economist/YouGov survey conducted January 26 to 28, 2025, among 1,577 U.S. adult citizens found 41 percent approving of his job performance and 45 percent disapproving, a narrow net rating of minus four points.
The poll was fielded online using YouGov’s opt‑in panel and weighted to reflect the national electorate, with a margin of error of 3.2 points.
Just over a year later, that relationship has deteriorated sharply.
In a follow‑up Economist/YouGov poll conducted February 20 to 23, 2026, among 1,551 adult citizens, approval among independents collapsed to 25 percent, while disapproval surged to 66 percent.
With a comparable 3.3‑point margin of error and identical question wording, the results leave Trump 41 points underwater with voters who often decide close elections.
Because the methodology remained consistent across both surveys, the shift reflects a genuine rupture rather than statistical noise.
Instead of drifting away slowly, independents appear to be breaking decisively.
SOTU Draws Worst Reaction This Century
Trump’s latest State of the Union (SOTU) address failed to deliver the traditional bounce presidents often receive from the nationally televised moment.
A CNN instant poll of speech viewers found that just 38 percent reacted “very positively,” while 36 percent responded negatively, producing one of the narrowest margins on record for a modern SOTU.
While 63 percent offered at least a somewhat positive assessment, intensity was notably weak.
CNN’s historical comparisons show Trump’s strongest reactions have steadily declined over successive addresses, falling well below peaks seen during his first term and trailing comparable midterm‑year speeches by recent presidents.
By comparison, Joe Biden’s 2022 SOTU drew a “very positive” rating of 41 percent, while Barack Obama’s 2010 address and Trump’s own 2018 speech both reached 48 percent.
The modern high‑water mark remains George W. Bush’s 2002 speech, which earned an extraordinary 74 percent “very positive” rating following 9/11.
CNN political director David Chalian said the numbers reflect broader trouble for Trump, noting that even among viewers inclined to support the president, enthusiasm was unusually muted.
As with all snap SOTU polling, the sample consisted of politically engaged viewers rather than the general public, but the results suggest Trump struggled to energize even a friendly audience.
Trump Weakest Modern President: CNN Expert
The broader approval backdrop heading into the speech was already bleak.
A CNN/SSRS poll conducted February 17 to 20, 2026, among 2,496 U.S. adults, found Trump’s approval at 36 percent, with 63 percent disapproving, leaving him 27 points underwater.
The survey’s large sample size produced a relatively tight margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
By modern standards, that gap is striking.
According to CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, Trump entered previous State of the Union addresses during his first term roughly 10 to 15 points underwater.
Comparisons with other modern presidents underline just how stark that position is, Enten said on the TV news channel this week.
“Trump isn’t just weaker than he’s ever been going into a State of the Union address,” Enten said.
“He’s weaker than any other president this century going into a State of the Union address at this point in their second term.”
At a similar point in their second terms, Barack Obama entered the State of the Union about 15 points underwater, while George W. Bush was closer to -11.
Trump’s ‑27 net approval places him well below both, marking a low‑water point for any president at this stage of a second term in the modern polling era.
Nate Silver Tracker Warns Approval Could Slide Further
Analysis published in the Silver Bulletin, Nate Silver’s polling site, suggests the topline average may understate Trump’s vulnerability.
Drawing on recent national polls from CNN/SSRS, Ipsos/Washington Post/ABC, and American Research Group—each with different samples, dates and margins of error—the tracker places Trump’s net approval near minus 15.
More concerning is the composition of that decline.
According to the analysis, nearly all recent movement has come from a drop in “strong” approval rather than gains among undecided voters.
Since tracking began last spring, the share of Americans who strongly approve has fallen by about 10 points, while strong disapproval has climbed sharply.
Because the average blends multiple methodologies, no single poll drives the result.
Instead, the pattern suggests erosion inside Trump’s core support, leaving his approval more exposed to further slippage.
The CNN/SSRS survey cited in the Silver Bulletin analysis was conducted between February 17 and 20, 2026, among 2,496 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted February 12-17 among 2,589 U.S. adults was drawn from the Ipsos KnowledgePanel and included margins of error ranging from plus or minus 3.4 points among approvers to 2.7 points among disapprovers who answered detailed policy questions.
And American Research Group’s poll was a nationwide survey of 1,100 completed interviews among a random sample of all U.S. adults age 18 and older conducted February 16-20, with a plus or minus 3 percentage point margin of error.
Tariff Approval Slips After Supreme Court Ruling
Public opinion on tariffs is also moving in the wrong direction for the president.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted January 9 to 12, 2026, among 1,602 U.S. adult citizens found 37 percent approving of Trump’s handling of tariffs, while 56 percent disapproved, producing a net rating of minus 19.
The survey was conducted online and carried a 3.3 percent margin of error.
A follow‑up poll using the same methodology, margin of error, and wording, fielded February 20 to 23, 2026, among 1,551 respondents, showed approval slipping to 33 percent as disapproval climbed to 60 percent.
That shift pushed Trump’s net rating on tariffs to -27 in little more than a month.
Because both polls asked about tariffs specifically rather than overall job performance, the change suggests growing skepticism about the policy itself rather than generalized dissatisfaction.
What People Are Saying
Responding to the tariff polling, White House spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “Americans overwhelmingly support renegotiating lopsided trade deals, lowering prescription drug prices, and bringing manufacturing back home to America. President Trump has powerfully used tariffs to deliver on all three ends, and will continue to use tariffs to deliver even more wins for the American people.”
Responding to polls on Trump’s approval rating, White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.
“The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
Responding to CNN’s SOTU instant poll, Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The same CNN polling showed 64 percent of speech-watchers felt the country is headed in the right direction. President Trump is delivering on his popular and commonsense America First mandate that nearly 80 million Americans elected him to do.”
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