Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have finished in first place in the AFC West each of the last nine years.
Still, this division nevertheless boasts impressive depth entering 2025.
For one thing, while the Chiefs went 15-2 (5-1 AFC West) in 2024, their five wins in the division were decided by a total of just 20 points. In fact, the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers each lost a game to Kansas City last year by exactly two points.
Last year, the Chargers (11-6) and Broncos (10-7) both joined the Chiefs in the postseason, and oddsmakers currently list all three of those teams at shorter than even money to make this year’s playoffs.
If new Raiders coach Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith are able to help the Raiders take a step forward, this could easily be the toughest, deepest division in the NFL.
2025 AFC West Win Total Odds
As we enter Year 13 of the Andy Reid era in Kansas City — and Year 1 for Carroll in Seattle, Year 2 for Jim Harbaugh in LA and Year 3 for Sean Payton in Denver —
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| Chiefs | 11.5 (o+100; u-120) | 11.5 (o+110; u-135) | 11.5 (o+100; u-130) |
| Broncos | 9.5 (o-125; u+105) | 9.5 (o+100; u-120) | 9.5 (o+100; u-130) |
| Chargers | 9.5 (o-105; u-115) | 9.5 (o+115; u-135) | 9.5 (o+100; u-130) |
| Raiders | 6.5 (o-145; u+120) | 6.5 (o-125; u+105) | 6.5 (o-145; u+115) |
Best Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Win Total Bet
Most teams that fare as well as Kansas City did in close games a year ago (this team went 10-0 in games decided by 7 points or fewer) take a step back the following season.
The Chiefs’ offense will be one of the most interesting units in the league to watch. In 2024, Patrick Mahomes and Co. struggled at times due to a lack of consistent pass-catching options besides Travis Kelce. That resulted in Mahomes hitting career-lows in both yards per attempt and yards per completion, though he still threw for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns.
If second-year receiver Xavier Worthy improves, Rashee Rice stays healthy and Kelce remains reliable, this passing game could look more like it did from ’18-22 than it did the last two years — and it could get a boost from Hollywood Brown if the veteran can stay healthy after missing all but two games in 2024.
The O-line is also a question mark after trading Joe Thuney to Chicago. If rookie first-rounder Josh Simmons holds up at left tackle, this group should be solid, but that’s another big if.
Though all the ifs could (obviously) go either way, the combo of Mahomes and a defense that has been one of the league’s best for the last two years are enough for me to back the Chiefs to go over 11.5 wins.
Best bet: Over 11.5 Wins (+110 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Best LA Chargers 2025 Win Total Bet
The Chargers were one of the most improved teams in the NFL under Jim Harbaugh last year, jumping from 5-12 in 2023 to 11-6 in 2024. It’s worth noting, however, that eight of their 11 wins came against the Raiders (twice), Panthers, Saints, Browns, Titans, Falcons and Patriots, all of whom finished with a losing record. In fact, all but the 8-9 Falcons finished 5-12 or worse.
The biggest key to LA’s success was the massive leap it made defensively. After finishing 24th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed in Brandon Staley’s final season, the Chargers were the No. 1 scoring defense in the league last year, and they finished just outside the top 10 in yards allowed.
Justin Herbert and the offense turned the ball over just nine times all season, which helped LA finish the year with the third-best turnover margin in the league at plus-12.
This offseason, the Chargers brought back 33-year-old wide receiver Keenan Allen to complement second-year standout Ladd McConkey. They also overhauled the running back room, replacing J.K. Dobbins with former Steeler Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton.
Unfortunately, the O-line took a massive blow during training camp when two-time Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending knee injury.
That injury makes me hesitant to take the Chargers to win 10 games. I’m also curious to see how the Chargers handle a much tougher schedule that includes six tough AFC West games, plus matchups against every team in the NFC East and AFC South.
Best bet: Under 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
Best Denver Broncos 2025 Win Total Bet
The Broncos, like the Chargers, improved from 2023 to 2024. Rookie Bo Nix led Denver to a 10-7 finish and a playoff berth thanks to a lights-out defense that kept every game close.
The Broncos figure to be even better defensively this season, as stars Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain II are all in their prime. Nix is one of the most intriguing quarterbacks in the league after hitting a groove late in his rookie year to overcome a rough start.
It’s unclear what Denver’s ceiling is with Nix at the helm, but the floor is sky-high thanks to Payton, an underrated O-line anchored by All-Pro right guard Quinn Meinerz and an excellent defense.
Even with a tough schedule, at even-money, the Broncos are hard resist to go over 9.5 wins.
Best bet: Over 9.5 Wins (+100 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Best Las Vegas Raiders 2025 Win Total Bet
The Raiders jumped out to me as a great over bet when win totals were released back in April. Four months later, I still think they’re one of the best bets to go over their 2025 win total.
The two biggest reasons for optimism in the Raiders (besides superstar tight end Brock Bowers) are head coach Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith. Both represent clear upgrades over their predecessors, and I expect this team to be competitive and entertaining, with Smith, rookie Ashton Jeanty and Bowers sparking an offense that was 25th in scoring last year.
The Raiders were one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NFL in 2024, with 29 giveaways, and they only forced 13, giving them one of the worst turnover margins in the league at -16.
There are issues on the offensive line, and outside of star DE Maxx Crosby, the Vegas defense isn’t exactly loaded, but I expect Smith to lead a competent offense that scores enough to get the Raiders to at least 7-10.
Best bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-125 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
Read the full article here
