Americans’ anxiety about inflation has reached a record high, according to a new poll.
New early-June data from The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll showed inflation fears hitting record levels among U.S. voters, just days before federal data confirmed prices had hit a three-year high.
Inflation remains the dominant political issue ahead of the midterms in November, the survey found, reshaping electoral dynamics in a way that threatens a key pillar of President Donald Trump’s political appeal.
Key Points
- Some 43 percent of registered voters now rank inflation among their top three concerns, up from 37 percent in March, according to the latest Center Square poll
- When it comes to inflation, 20 percent say it is the single most important issue, up five points in three months, according to the pollster
- Annual inflation hit 4.2 percent in May, the highest level since 2023, driven largely by energy costs
- Six in ten voters say the country is on the wrong track, reflecting mounting economic pessimism
- The share of Americans (57 percent) who say the economy is “getting worse” has hit a high point for Trump’s second term, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll
Why It Matters
Inflation has re-emerged as the decisive voter issue at a moment when Republicans are defending narrow congressional majorities. The president’s political strength has historically rested on perceptions of economic competence, making the current polling shift especially consequential.
Inflation Anxiety Hits a New High
The latest Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll conducted between June 1–4 by Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan public opinion polling firm, surveyed 2,585 registered voters via an opt-in online panel and text-to-web methods, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.93 points. The sample included 915 Republicans, 1,013 Democrats and 297 true independents.
It shows inflation concerns reaching their highest level since tracking began, with 43 percent of voters citing price increases as a top-three issue, up six points since March.
One in five voters now ranks inflation as the single most important issue, ahead of immigration, which stands at 19 percent.
“Cost of living just still dominates,” pollster Mike Noble said. “Inflation is still the top issue.”
That shift is rooted in tangible price increases. Gasoline prices have climbed sharply amid the Iran war, rising from roughly $2.94 per gallon in late February to over $4.13 by June, according to government and industry data cited in the poll reporting.
Food prices have also continued to rise, with staple items such as ground beef and coffee seeing double-digit increases since early last year.
Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based public policy research organization, told The Center Square, inflation has become the top problem “in almost every poll these days.”
Economic Confidence Shows Broader Malaise
But the shift is not limited to inflation alone. According to Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, based on interviews conducted between May 1–17, sentiment has fallen to -45, the lowest level since October 2022.
Just 16 percent of Americans rate economic conditions as “excellent” or “good,” the lowest since April 2023, while nearly half—49 percent—say conditions are “poor,” a percentage that has been rising since the start of this year when it was 37 percent. Three in four Americans, or 76 percent, now believe the economy is getting worse, which is now at its highest point since an identical 76 percent in May 2023.
The same survey shows declining confidence across all major party groups, including Republicans, whose economic confidence remains positive but has fallen sharply in recent months.
Trend Data Shows a Structural Shift in Mood
Longer-term trendlines reinforce this picture. Gallup’s historical series shows economic confidence weakening steadily through 2025 and into 2026, with the share of Americans rating conditions as “poor” climbing toward half the electorate.
And separate tracking of economic sentiment suggests pessimism about the future has also surged. In a recent YouGov tracker data, the proportion of Americans saying the economy is “getting worse” has climbed to roughly six in 10 by June 2026—the highest readings of Trump’s second term.
This trajectory is familiar in politics as rising inflation, falling confidence, and a pessimistic outlook can form the classic ingredients of a difficult electoral environment for incumbents.
Inflation Data Reinforces Pressure
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in May and 4.2 percent over the past year.
Energy costs are the dominant factor. The energy index has climbed 23.5 percent over the past 12 months and accounted for more than 60 percent of the overall increase in May.
This surge reflects disruptions in global energy markets linked to the conflict in Iran, which has constrained oil flows and pushed up fuel costs as Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, inflation is now more than double the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2 percent target, complicating hopes for near-term interest rate cuts.
Approval Ratings Reflect a Growing Political Problem
Polling suggests voters are not persuaded. A YouGov/The Economist poll conducted between June 5–8, surveyed 1,603 U.S. adults with a margin of error of about 3.6 points.
It found that only 24 percent approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, while 68 percent disapprove.
Inflation has become Trump’s weakest issue, a reversal from earlier political cycles in which Republicans typically held an advantage on economic stewardship.
What Trump Said About Inflation Data—and How He Clarified It
The president raised eyebrows after reacting to the latest inflation data by telling reporters earlier this week: “I love the inflation.”
Speaking in the Oval Office after the latest BLS report that showed prices rising to a 4.2 percent annual rate, Trump added: “The numbers were great.”
The comment quickly went viral and drew criticism from political opponents, given the rising cost-of-living remains a top concern for voters.
But in a follow-up interview shortly afterwards, Trump said his remarks had been taken out of context.
He told the New York Post he was referring to the fact that inflation was not higher despite the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
“The numbers are much lower than anticipated,” Trump said, adding that he expected prices to fall sharply once the war ends.
He argued that the current 4.2 percent rate could represent a peak tied to energy price shocks, describing future inflation figures as likely to be “very low” once conditions stabilize.
The president has consistently linked rising prices to the impact of the war on global energy markets, predicting inflation will “come down like a rock” when the conflict ends.
What the White House Says
The White House has frequently dismissed the significance of recent polling, pointing to what it describes as the “ultimate poll”—Trump’s 2024 election victory.
In a statement previously shared with Newsweek, spokesperson Davis Ingle said nearly 80 million Americans had “overwhelmingly elected President Trump” to deliver his agenda, arguing that no president “has accomplished more for the American people.”
He said Trump is “working tirelessly” on economic priorities including jobs, inflation and housing, and pointed to “historic progress…around the world,” adding: “This is just the beginning.”
What Happens Next
Inflation will remain a central metric to watch in the months ahead, particularly as new Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released, and fuel prices respond to developments in the Iran conflict.
Politically, the trajectory of economic sentiment could shape the midterm battlefield. Historically, when inflation dominates voter concerns and confidence collapses, the party in power faces significant headwinds.
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