Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter.
Today’s edition is available below:
It’s (probably) too early for betting favorite Seattle to start planning a Super Bowl parade, but it’s already hard to shake the feeling that Super Bowl 60 is going to look a lot like Super Bowl 48.
Still, Texans vs. Patriots (3 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC) and Rams vs. Bears (6:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock) are fascinating, must-see matchups.
Hopefully, neither one brings any more devastating news like Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury.
At the moment, that development feels like not only the most brutal postseason injury we’ve seen in years, but also the biggest betting news of the weekend.
Regardless of who advances in today’s AFC Divisional Round matchup in Foxborough, Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos will be catching points next Sunday.
We’ll unpack everything you need to know — and every bet we like today — below, as an excellent three-day stretch of playoff football continues.
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Texans at Patriots Odds, Best Bets, Player Props
Texans (5) at Patriots (2) Betting Odds (FD):
- Spread: HOU +3.5 (-122); NE -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: HOU +142; NE -168
- Total: 40.5 (o-114; u-106)
When the lines for this weekend opened earlier this week, the first Divisional Round bet of the weekend that I placed was the under in Texans-Patriots. The total has since dropped from 41.5 to 40.5 #CLV, but the under remains hard to resist at that number.
That’s how confident I am in the Houston defense. And the Texans struggling offensively feels like almost as much of a lock as Will Anderson Jr. and Co. having another huge day on D.
As good as Drake Maye and the Pats have been all season, their pass-blocking issues, as we spelled out here, are impossible to overlook in a matchup with one of the best defensive teams in the league.
I don’t love CJ Stroud and the Texans offense, especially A) without top WR Nico Collins and B) on the road this deep in the playoffs. Still, I think they’ll do just enough to set up an AFC Championship Game rock fight in Denver next Sunday.
Prediction: Texans to advance
Best bets
- Under 40.5 (best odds: -106 at FD) — 1 unit
- First Half Under 19.5 (best odds: +105 at DK) — 1 unit
- Texans moneyline (+145 at DK) — 0.5 units
Best Texans vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets
- Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FD) — 1 unit
- Maye 8+ Rush Attempts (+119 at DK) — 0.5 units
Maye might end up running for his life against the Texans’ excellent pass rush. The good news is that he is a dangerous runner, as we saw last week, when he recorded a career-high 10 carries for 66 yards, including a 37-yarder against the Chargers.
The Texans, for all their strengths, have given up substantial yards on the ground to a few scrambling QBs this year, including 59 to Patrick Mahomes in Week 14 and 37 to Justin Herbert in Week 17.
A new career-high in rush attempts (the current number is 10) by Maye shouldn’t surprise anyone, which makes him a tempting to bet to clear this line — and/or finish with at least 8 carries.
Rams at Bears Odds, Best Bets, Player Props
Rams (5) at Bears (2) Betting Odds (FD):
- Spread: LAR -3.5 (-115); CHI -3.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: LAR -198; CHI +166
- Total: 48.5 (o-112; u-108)
The Bears have reached this point thanks to a dicey formula that just keeps working:
- 1) Come up with just enough key stops (and/or turnovers)
- 2) let Caleb Williams take it from there in the final minutes
Playoff teams Green Bay (once in the regular season, once in the postseason), Philadelphia and Pittsburgh all fell victim to the Bears’ magic this year, and it’s not hard to envision yet another thrilling victory by this team tonight.
But despite some of the Rams’ struggles down the stretch, especially in the secondary, they strike me as the much more well-rounded team, so I’ll take them to survive a close one tonight.
L.A. will get a big boost offensively from right guard Kevin Dotson, who has not played since Week 16. I also like the Rams’ excellent pass rush to keep Williams in check, or at least prevent him from adding to his fast-growing list of memorable fourth-quarter comebacks. And if the Rams do need a last-minute drive or two from MVP betting favorite Matthew Stafford, he showed reminded us all last week that he’s up to the task.
I’m not quite willing to lay 3.5 points here, so I’d recommend taking the Rams on the moneyline, even at the far-from-tempting price of -198.
Best bet: Rams moneyline (best odds: -198 at FD) — 1 unit
Best Rams vs. Bears Player Prop Bets
- CHI WR Luther Burden III 4+ receptions (+154 at FD) — 0.5 units
- CHI TE Colston Loveland o56.5 rec. yards (-112 at FD) — 1 unit
Even if we knew for sure that Bears WR Rome Odunze were going to play in this game, I’d be tempted to back both Bears rookie tight end Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III.
Burden had a well-documented up-and-down night vs. the Packers, but he’s a dangerous underneath weapon who should get plenty of looks against a dangerous pass-rushing team like the Rams.
He played over 60 percent of Chicago’s offensive snaps last week, continuing his late-season bump in usage.
In his last six games, Burden has drawn at least six targets five times. He also caught at least four passes in four straight games before finishing with 3 catches on 4 targets in the regular-season finale and 3 catches on 7 targets in last week’s Wild Card win over the Packers.
Loveland, on the other hand, is simply playing too well to ignore. He’s been Williams’ clear top target in three straight games, with 90-plus receiving yards in Week 17 and Week 18, plus 137 more on 15 (!) targets in his playoff debut last Saturday night.
Even if he ends up commanding a ton of defensive attention from L.A. in this game, he’s a great bet to cash this prop after drawing 38 targets in his last three games while rarely leaving the field (his offensive snap share has exceeded 80 percent in four straight games).
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