New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is closer to unseating Gov. Kathy Hochul and turning the Empire State red than Lee Zeldin was in the home stretch of last election — when the GOP rival mounted a nail-bitingly close challenge, a stunning new poll reveals.
The Democrat incumbent leads Blakeman by just 10 points — 49% to 39% — among likely voters, according to a Siena College survey conducted in early August.
This places the Nassau County executive in a better position than Republican candidate Zeldin was at this time four years ago.
In August 2022, Hochul, just finishing her first year as governor, led the then-Long Island Rep and current US Environmental Protection Agency Administrator by 14 points among likely voters — 53% to 39%.
Hochul only won the election against Zeldin by a narrow six points — 53% to 47%.
“With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
“The race is already competitive,” he added.
Voters will cast their ballots for governor on November 3.
Notably, Hochul’s lead is slimmer than those of Democratic incumbents in other statewide races.
Two-term Democratic state Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger, former federal prosecutor Saritha Komatireddy, by 18 points — 54% to 36% — among likely voters.
Meanwhile, four-term Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez by 23 points — 55% to 32%.
Hochul’s campaign is buoyed by female supporters and black voters, the Sienna poll shows.
She holds a 19-point lead over Blakeman among women — 56% to 37% — while likely male voters are split.
Blakeman trails Hochul by 60 points among black voters.
The incumbent also holds a significant 45-point lead in deep-blue New York City — 64% to 19% — where far-left socialist Zohran Mamdani took away the mayoral election in 2025.
Blakeman, meanwhile, led his rival by 8 points in the suburbs — 49% to 41% — and the two split the upstate vote, according to the survey.
The GOP challenger also had more support among Catholics and had the support of 42% of Jewish voters, typically a Democratic-leaning constituency. Blakeman is Jewish.
Despite the encouraging signs for the Republican challenger, the poll did reveal he has some ground to make up on key issues.
For example, roughly half of likely voters — 51% — said Hochul would do a better job of increasing affordable housing, compared to roughly a third — 35% — who believed Blakeman would.
Those respondents say she will do a slightly better job making prices more affordable for average New Yorkers — 48% to 41%.
Voters are split on who will keep New Yorkers safe, with 47% believing Hochul would do a better job with public safety and 44% believing Blakeman would.
Other surveys conducted by Republican-leaning pollsters claimed the race is even closer.
A poll conducted for the pro-Blakeman “Strong and Safe” Super PAC last month had the Republican trailing his rival by just 4 points — 47% to 43%.
Another survey taken by a conservative-leaning group earlier last month showed Hochul leading Blakeman by just 6 points — 47% to 41% — among likely voters.
That survey was conducted by the firm co/efficient for the right-leaning, pro-Blakeman “Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers.”
Siena College interviewed 811 likely voters from Aug. 3-6. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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