Jonathan Bush, a member of the Bush political family and relative of former President George W. Bush, is polling in second place in Maine’s Republican gubernatorial primary in a race to replace term-limited Democrat Janet Mills, according to a new survey.
Maine is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 percentage points last November, but it does have an independent streak and has supported moderate Republicans like Senator Susan Collins.
However, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race for governor as “Likely Democratic.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Bush and Bobby Charles campaigns for comment via email on Thursday.
Bush Family Legacy
The Bush family, which has deep roots in the seaside Walk’s Point in Kennebunkport, Maine, has been one of the most influential dynasties in modern American politics, spanning four generations, with two presidents, a vice president, governors, senators and presidential contenders.
The family’s political rise began with Prescott Bush, a Republican senator from Connecticut in the 1950s and early 1960s, before expanding nationally through his son, George H. W. Bush.
George H. W. Bush served as a congressman, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, CIA director and vice president before winning the White House in 1988.
The dynasty expanded further with George W. Bush, who was president from 2001 to 2009 after previously serving as governor of Texas, and Jeb Bush, who became a prominent Republican figure during his two terms as Florida governor. For years, the Bush name was closely tied to the Republican establishment.
But the family’s political dominance has faded in the Trump era, as the Republican Party has shifted away from the Bush-era brand of conservatism toward Trump’s populist movement.
Jeb Bush’s 2016 presidential campaign collapsed amid the rise of Trump and more recent efforts by younger Bush family members, including George P. Bush, have struggled to regain the same level of influence, reflecting broader changes within the GOP electorate.
In 2022, George P. Bush’s loss in the Texas attorney general GOP primary was viewed by some as the potential end of the decades-long political dynasty, but Jonathan Bush’s campaign could give the family a reboot.
Jonathan Bush, the co-founder of Athenahealth, is a nephew of George H. W. Bush, cousin to George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, and grandson of Prescott Bush.
He also is the brother of television presenter Billy Bush who was involved in the infamous 2005 “locker room” tape incident that surfaced during the 2016 presidential campaign in which then-GOP candidate Donald Trump bragged that he could grab women “by the p***y.”
What Polls Say About Jonathan Bush
A Pan Atlantic Research survey released on Wednesday found Jonathan Bush in second place in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
In a survey of 287 likely Republican primary voters, 36 percent said they would rank Bobby Charles as their first choice, 20 percent Bush, 13 percent Garrett Mason, 4 percent Owen McCarthy, 3 percent David Jones, 2 percent Ben Midgley and 1 percent Robert Wessels. Twenty-two percent of voters were undecided.
In a follow-up question on second-choice preferences, a key factor because Maine uses ranked-choice voting in party primaries, Bush received 16 percent support, trailing Mason at 20 percent but ahead of Charles and Jones, who each received 7 percent. Wessels and Midgley each drew 6 percent, while McCarthy received 1 percent.
Combined first- and second-choice rankings still put Charles ahead with 43 percent support, followed by Bush at 36 percent and Mason at 32 percent, while the remaining candidates each received less than 10 percent.
In an X post Wednesday, Bush’s campaign responded to the poll, writing: “Thrilled to share the latest Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus poll showing Johnathan Bush SURGING from 4% to 20% and closing the gap. Momentum is growing!”
Earlier this month, a McLaughlin & Associates poll sponsored by Charles found him up 36 points, with 47 percent of the vote for first choice. Mason and Bush were tied in second place with 11 percent and Midgley with 10 percent. The poll of 300 likely GOP primary voters was conducted between April 28-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
Maine’s Gubernatorial History
Maine has a long history of competitive gubernatorial politics. Democratic Governor Janet Mills has led the state since 2019 after former Republican Governor Paul LePage.
The state has historically elected governors from both parties, as well as independents, reflecting Maine’s reputation for political independence and split-ticket voting. Independent Angus King served as governor from 1995 to 2003 before becoming a U.S. senator.
Maine’s use of ranked-choice voting in federal elections and party primaries has further reinforced its distinct political identity, particularly in crowded races where second-choice support can play a decisive role.
When Is Election Day?
Maine’s primary election is set for June 9 and the general election for November 3.
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