FedEx (NYSE:FDX) is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, June 24, 2025. Historically, FedEx’s stock has demonstrated varied reactions to earnings announcements over the last five years. After earnings releases, the stock has recorded positive one-day returns in 50% of instances, with a median increase of 6.6%. Conversely, in the remaining 50% of cases, it has faced negative one-day returns, with a median decrease of 4.8%.
For event-driven traders, grasping these historical trends can prove advantageous. You can utilize this information in two main ways:
- Pre-earnings positioning: Assess the historical probabilities and take a position prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-earnings positioning: Analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release, and then modify your position as needed.
Analysts anticipate FedEx will report earnings of $5.86 per share and sales of $21.8 billion for Q4 2025. This is an increase from the same quarter last year, when the earnings were $5.41 per share on sales of $22.1 billion.
From a fundamental perspective, FedEx currently holds a market capitalization of $54 billion. In the past twelve months, the company achieved $88 billion in revenue, with operating profits reaching $6.0 billion and a net income of $3.9 billion, reflecting operational profitability.
However, if you are looking for potential gains with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielded returns exceeding 91% since its establishment. Separately, see – Archer Aviation: What’s Happening With ACHR Stock?
View the earnings reaction history of all stocks
FDX Stock Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points logged over the past five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In total, positive 1D returns occurred around 50% of the time.
- The percentage remains consistent at 50% if we consider data over the last three years instead of five.
- The median of the 10 positive returns stands at 6.6%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -4.8%.
Additional information for the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
FDX Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (although not effective if the correlation is minimal) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D indicate the highest correlation, traders can position themselves “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), producing robust returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire potential upside with a smoother experience compared to an individual stock like FedEx, contemplate the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
Read the full article here
