DISASTER WILL HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
The idea that we can predict the future is an attractive one, promising certainty in an uncertain world. That helps overcome the litany of failed prophecies, from Nostradamus’s warnings in 1999 to the Maya doomsday theories in 2012.
Some that do turn out to be true – think the 1988 Japanese animated movie Akira’s prediction that Tokyo would host the 2020 Olympics – are just examples of survivor bias. We forget those that don’t come to pass, remembering only those that do, presumably including Tatsuki’s 2011 reference.
But when it comes to Japan, past predictions of doom – such as a “hidden planet” Nibiru crashing into Earth, or a supermassive black hole at the galaxy’s center causing havoc – aren’t good comparisons. A catastrophe not dissimilar to the one Tatsuki describes really could take place at any time – Jul 5, or any day before or after. Indeed, according to government estimates for the Nankai Trough quake, it’s more likely than not to happen in our lifetimes.
Nonetheless, even in Japan many are still taken by surprise. Media focus on major disasters such as a quake hitting directly under Tokyo can lure those elsewhere into a false sense of security. Few, including the operators of the Fukushima nuclear plant, were sufficiently prepared for a quake off the coast in 2011 – despite extensive records showing past disasters.
On Jul 5, when nothing happens, what then? My guess is most will just shrug and move on, perhaps a little embarrassed for having believed it, or a little better prepared than they otherwise would have been. People might turn on Tatsuki, who has already distanced herself from the exact date. She may pop up again with another prediction – or fade back into obscurity.
Regardless, the message that we should prepare for disaster is one we should listen to. In all probability, the earthquake won’t happen on Jul 5. But it will happen sometime. That’s a warning we should all heed.
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