National security decision-making will become more centralised under Mr Xi and the party’s Central Committee. New national security legislations and regulatory frameworks will be developed to govern critical emerging fields.
The government plans to increase investment in building up national security institutions and human capital, likely leading to an expansion of both the state security and public security apparatus. National security awareness campaigns and academic research will be promoted, potentially bolstering the whole-of-society approach to counterintelligence.
New legislations and regulatory policies – building on existing national security, intelligence, and counterespionage laws – are expected to elevate the importance of national security across the board, possibly reinforcing an unwelcoming climate for foreign businesses.
State security surveillance capabilities will be upgraded, while national security campaigns targeting the public – particularly the youth – will be launched to promote ideological uniformity.
Mr Xi’s direct control over the People’s Liberation Army will be reinforced, a development that could contribute to greater bureaucratic inertia and unpredictability in the use of force.
The defiant tone of the white paper suggests that tensions will only increase. Judging by the current trajectory of US-China relations, it is almost certain that the US will eventually challenge China’s red lines and elicit firm responses, further intensifying their rivalry and leading to greater global instability.
Yang Zi is an Associate Research Fellow in the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
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