A new Florida poll shows Republicans holding the edge in the 2026 governor’s race, but the general election matchup remains competitive as Democrats look for a path back statewide.
Newsweek has reached out to the Republican Party of Florida and the Florida Democratic Party via contact forms on their websites for comment.
Why It Matters
Florida has shifted steadily right in recent election cycles, making any Democratic comeback an uphill battle.
This new poll offers an early snapshot of whether that grip is loosening ahead of 2026.
What To Know
A new Emerson College Polling survey, conducted March 29-31, 2026, among 1,125 likely voters, suggests Democrats face a narrow but real challenge in flipping Florida’s governor’s mansion. The poll has a credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, of +/- 2.8 percent.
In a hypothetical general election matchup, Republican Representative Byron Donalds leads former GOP Representative David Jolly—who left the party in 2018 and registered as a Democrat in April 2025—44 percent to 39 percent.
Another 15 percent of voters say they are undecided, with 2 percent backing another option.
The results fall within the poll’s margin of error, underscoring how fluid the race remains at this early stage.
A separate head-to-head between Jolly and Casey DeSantis shows an even tighter contest.
Jolly draws 40 percent support to DeSantis’ 39 percent, while 19 percent remain undecided and 3 percent say they would vote for someone else.
Those general election numbers come as Republicans appear far more consolidated on their side.
Donalds dominates the GOP primary field with 46 percent support, well ahead of Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, who received 4 percent. Nearly four in 10 Republican voters say they are still undecided.
Democratic Field and Voter Divides
Among Democrats, the field is far less settled. Jolly leads the Democratic primary with 21 percent, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 10 percent.
A majority of Democratic voters—53 percent—remain undecided, highlighting the lack of a clear standard-bearer.
The poll also points to key demographic divides that could shape the general election.
Florida’s Hispanic voters are nearly evenly split between Donalds and Jolly, while men favor Donalds by a wide margin and women lean slightly toward Jolly.
Beyond the governor’s race, the survey paints a challenging environment for Democrats statewide.
Broader Political Climate and Methodology
In the U.S. Senate contest, GOP Senator Ashley Moody leads each potential Democratic opponent tested, including Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon.
Voter sentiment on the broader political landscape remains mixed.
President Donald Trump’s job approval among Florida likely voters stands at 46 percent, with 47 percent disapproving.
Governor Ron DeSantis fares slightly better, with 50 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval.
Among independent voters, Trump is underwater, while DeSantis sits narrowly above water.
Economic anxiety also looms large.
A plurality of voters say they are worse off financially than a year ago, a perception especially common among Democrats and independents.
Responses were weighted to reflect Florida’s electorate by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region.
Data was collected using text-to-web and email outreach to registered voters and verified panels.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Byron Donalds is the clear favorite among Republicans to succeed Governor DeSantis.
“Donalds leads all age groups and holds majority support among voters over 60, at 54 percent.”
He added: “Florida Hispanic voters are split between Donalds and Jolly: 42 percent support Donalds and 41 percent Jolly.
“Men break for Donalds by 14 points, 49 percent to 35 percent, while women break for Jolly by 3 points, 43 percent to 40 percent.”
What Happens Next
Attention now shifts to whether Democrats can consolidate behind a single candidate and cut into the large pool of undecided voters.
Fundraising, endorsements and national political headwinds are likely to play an outsized role as the 2026 race begins to take clearer shape.
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